As highlighted a few days ago the forecast for Saturday has held and a strong nor’easter with blizzard conditions is on our doorstep.
Key points:
- Low pressure develops south of Charleston, South Carolina Friday afternoon and rapidly strengthens as it tracks northeast towards Nantucket. Yes; it is undergoing bombogenesis.
- Snow overspreads the region early Saturday morning from south to north. Flakes begin flying at approximately:
- 11p along the south coast.
- 1a along the Massachusetts turnpike.
- 4a along the MA/NH border.
- 7a south of Concord, NH and along the Maine coast.
- 10a the rest of New England.
- Snow will fall heavy during the day Saturday. Snowfall rates 1-2″ per hour are expected. Localized 3-4″ per rates are possible. Across eastern areas thundersnow is possible later in the day.
- Wind and coastal flooding issues will be a problem. If you live on the coast and you’ve flooded in the past, you will again during this one. Near hurricane force winds are possible on the Cape and islands. Inland; occasional gusts will be quite strong 30-50 mph.
- The storm winds down from southwest to northeast Saturday night.
- 7p southwest CT.
- 10p the Boston area.
- 4a along the Maine coast.
Storm Evolution
Wind Gusts
Coastal Issues
Below is a loop of project wave heights. Doesn’t take much interpretation to know that’s a lot of water and energy being pushed up against the coast.
Snowfall
-Chris
Was it cold enough for you this morning? Morning lows across the region were generally near 0 if not just below. Fortunately temperatures are on the rise today with a rather nice day in store tomorrow save for a few flurries or snow showers.
All attention is focused on the forecast for Saturday. As highlighted in my last post, confidence for a major snowstorm has only continued to increase, especially the further east one lives. Winter Storm watches have been issued by the National Weather Service.
Friday
In response to an approaching upper level trough cyclogenesis will occur off the southeast coast. The storm center will be tugged north along the east coast while rapidly strengthening throughout the day and night.
You’ll notice that there are a few flurries and snow showers over the region during the day Friday. Little accumulation is expected as not much should reach the surface.
Friday Night
Friday night is when things really start to get going as the storm system rapidly intensifies and precipitation blossoms to the north and west of the center. Snow will increase in coverage from north to south and by morning, nearly everyone in southern New England should have snow outside their window.
Saturday
Zooming in to a more local view. As the storm system reaches its peak intensity southeast of Nantucket it will begin to slow down. I do not currently expect the storm to stall and loop south of the islands, but it will slowly exist northeast. It is during the day Saturday when the bulk of the snow will fall.
Saturday Night
Finally Saturday night as the storm drifts off to Nova Scotia snow will wind down from southwest to northeast. Leaving us all to dig out Sunday morning.
Total Storm Loop
Wind Gusts
Wind gusts from this system will be quite strong. Particularly the closer to the coast one lives. For areas inside and southeast of the 128 loop in eastern Massachusetts, it would not be surprising to see the National Weather Service issue Blizzard warnings. Regardless, blizzard-like conditions are expected at times.
Snowfall
Here is my current thinking for the storm. Felt these ranges are both bold and conservative. There are questions to how far northwest the heaviest precipitation expands. In the Boston area, the 18″ number may be low in a few spots. Someone insides of 495 down to the Cape will see 24″. Just not sure who.
-Chris
It only takes one right? Winter 2021-2022 has been relatively quiet across much of New England with most locations below normal on the year for snowfall. That may be about to change this weekend.
Many of the weather computer guidance models are indicating the potential for a rather significant storm system for the Friday night and Saturday period.
What do we know right now?
- A significant storm system will be somewhere off the east coast.
- Temperatures are sufficiently cold for snow (storm track dependent).
- The tide cycle is astronomically high.
The Set-up
Friday afternoon an area of low pressure will begin organizing off the southeast coastline.
From here the storm system will progress north-northeast up the coast.
As you can see from the model simulation above the storm system is currently forecasted to pass close enough to New England to overspread the region with snowfall. We are still ~4 days away from first snowflakes so the track is far from set in stone. So will hold off on snowfall amounts for now.
Key Takeaways
- A significant storm system is likely to form off the east coast Friday into Saturday.
- The airmass is sufficiently cold for snowfall depending on track. A closer track could introduce the idea of a mix or changeover to rain.
- In addition to snow, strong winds and coastal flooding are a concern due to both the strength of the storm itself and astronomically high tides.
- Specific details such as snow amounts and exact timing are to be refined in the coming days.
In summary, the potential is there for a storm system where one measures snowfall with a yard stick rather than a ruler. However, a lot can change over the next few days. Stay tuned.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 