Tropical Storm Isaias Water Vapor – Tropical Tidbits, LLC
Tropical Storm Isaias continues to march northward along the Florida/Georgia coastline this morning. A turn more towards the northeast is expected to commence shortly. Headed for landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina border, Isaias may flirt with hurricane strength just prior to landfall.
Five Day Forecast Cone – National Hurricane Center
Following landfall Isaias will accelerate north along the I-95 corridor and into Canada. During the storms journey north periods of heavy rain and gusty winds can be expected. Due to the Isaias’s speed, the flash flooding threat is low, but not nonexistent. The flash flood risk potential is outlined below.
Flash Flood Risk – Weather Prediction Center
Monday is primarily quiet across New England as we watch the radars back to the southwest. Rain moves in Tuesday.
Tuesday -> Wednesday AM
Tuesday 6 am -> Wednesday 11 am Precip & MSLP – WeatherBell, LLC
As shown above the center of the system tracks through western New England and up the Connecticut River Valley. This means that heaviest axis of rain will be across western New England and New York. Potential rainfall from the system can be found below.
Potential Rainfall – WeatherBell, LLC
In terms of wind potential, opposite to rainfall, the strongest, consistent wind gusts occur on the east side of the system. Potential wind gusts on the order of 30-50 mph for most shown below.
Potential Wind Gusts – WeatherBell, LLC
Isaias is a distant thought by late Wednesday and the second half of the week looks ok. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s with slightly lower dew points near 60 will make for a comfortable end to the work week.
-Chris
Tropical Storm Isaias IR Satellite – Tropical Tidbits, LLC
Hello all. Tropical storm Isaias continues to spin just east of the Florida coast line as it continues its journey northward. According to the 8 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Isaias is currently moving northwest at 8 mph and has winds up to 65 mph.
Forecast Cone – National Hurricane Center
Isaias is not expected to regain hurricane status for the remainder of its existence. Today & tomorrow, Isaias will drift northward very near the Florida coast, most likely scraping the beaches before turning slightly more northeastward and land falling along the South Carolina shore.
Five Day ECMWF Ensemble Members – WeatherNerds
Following landfall in the Carolinas, Isaias is not expected to move back out into the Atlantic, rather the system will commute up I-95 into the Northeast. Isaias will accelerate northward Tuesday and Wednesday as the system interacts with a piece of the jet stream diving into the eastern third of the US. Coincidentally, Isaias enters the jet stream in a favorable position to allow for a gradual weakening rather than abrupt, even though the system is over land.
Monday
Monday Forecast Radar & MSLP – Tropical Tidbits, LLC
Isaias wobbles along the Florida coast during the day Monday before making land fall near or just north of Charleston, South Carolina Monday night.
Tuesday
Tuesday Forecast Precipitation & MSLP – WeatherBell, LLC
It’s not to difficult to notice that Isaias covers a lot more ground on Tuesday when compared to Monday. As Isaias accelerates northward on I-95, rain will begin to form out ahead of the storm as Isaias interacts with the jet stream. Locally most of Tuesday may be dry, but with a tropical air mass moving in, rain is possible any time of the day.
New England
Tue 8 pm – Wed 8 pm – WeatherBell, LLC
Locally a brief heavy period of rain will move through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. East of the storm track rain totals will be between 0.5-1″ with locally higher and lower amounts. Western areas could receive as much as 3-5″ of rain with localized flashed flooding.
Storm Total Rainfall – WeatherBell, LLC
As tropical systems progress northward up the east coast, historically, the storms take on an asymetrical shape with heavy rains to the west of center and the stronger winds to the east of center. Which is why the heavier amounts are found west of I-95 in the image above and why the stronger winds are primarily east of I-95 shown below.
Maximum Wind Gusts – WeatherBell, LLC
As a reminder, with tropical systems impacting New England, the primary threat is heavy rain with lesser threats from damaging winds or the isolated tornado. Beyond Isaias, the forecast here in New England looks quite nice with temperatures in the 80s through the weekend.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 