Late yesterday the Air Force Recon plane surveying Isaias discovered a stronger than expected storm with winds of up to 80 mph; officially making Isaias a hurricane.
Hurricane Isaias – Tropical Tidbits, LLC.
Isaias still has a bit of organization to do to take on the classic hurricane appearance but don’t be fooled, this is a potent system. Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the Bahamian Islands; while hurricane watches are posted for the east coast of Florida.
NHC Forecast Track & Warnings – National Hurricane Center
Presented above is the 8 am forecast track for Isaias from the National Hurricane Center. Consistent with my message yesterday, all coastal locals from Miami to Maine may experience impacts from the storm.
So, what does the computer guidance say about Isaias? Overall, there is pretty good agreement amongst the ensemble guidance regarding the future track of the system. (An ensemble is a forecast system where each iteration is tweaked slightly to produce a range of outcomes; hence the numerous lines of “spaghetti”) The black lines represent the mean of the assorted outcomes.
European Ensemble
European Ensemble Members – WeatherNerds
American Ensemble
GEFS Members – WeatherNerds
UK Ensemble
UKMET Ensemble Members – WeatherNerds
Overall the theme is consistent featuring a storm system tracking through the southern and western Bahamas, skirting the Florida coast (potentially making landfall), likely making landfall in the Carolinas, then paralleling the northeast coast into southern New England.
For our purposes here in southern New England, most guidance brings a storm system of tropical storm intensity very near or over southern New England late Tuesday or early Wednesday. That means a period of very heavy rain and strong winds is possible for the region. Certainly stayed tuned.
-Chris
Your first thought when seeing the title of this blog was probably “Really Chris?”. 2020 continues to throw everything it can at us. Next up on the list is a tropical system potentially impacting the east coast of the United States.
Tropical Storm Isaias Satellite – Tropical Tidbits LLC
Isaias is currently moving northwest along the northern coast of Hispaniola. Satellite loops of the system show a healthy storm system with signs of potential strengthening beginning to show. Particularly the improvement of the storms cirrus canopy. A sign that the “engine” of the system is exhausting properly.
The 5 PM update from the National Hurricane Center documents a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 60 mph moving northwest towards the Bahama Islands. Based on the 5 pm forecast, Isaias is expected to become a hurricane sometime late tomorrow. Below is the latest forecast cone from the NHC.
NHC Forecast Cone
Certainly it isn’t hard to notice that anyone from Miami, FL to Portland, ME is within the cones potential track. Certainly with southern New England in the forecast cone we will need to keep an eye on Isaias over the weekend. Stay tuned.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 