Do you remember last Thursday’s forecast? For reference, here is my blog from last week: https://chrishamptonweather.wordpress.com/2020/02/04/thursday-am-mix/. If I just left you to read that blog over again, then I think you would be all set. A very similar forecast is in store for this Thursday, except this time, surface temperatures aren’t as favorable. So maybe southern areas don’t accumulate.

Temperature Evolution

Surface Temperatures – hover around 32F for a while before eventually warmer air works its way in south of the Massachusetts turnpike. An afternoon spike into the 40s to near 50 looks possible.

Thursday 1a -> 7p Surface Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC

Temperatures Aloft – Spike through the morning. Temperatures just above the surface spike well above freezing switching snow over to sleet and freezing rain. This rapid onslaught of warm air aloft will make the window for snowfall very small to almost non-existent in many locations.

925mb Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC

Precipitation Evolution

This type of storm system comes with a pretty distinct precipitation evolution. Most locations start as snow. After about an hour and an inch of snow, parts of CT, RI, and southeast MA quickly switch over to sleet and rain. Central MA, southern VT & NH hang on to the snow for just a bit longer, maybe a 3-hr window where 2 inches of snow accumulates before switching over to an hour of sleet followed by a few hours of mist/drizzle. Central NH & VT and Maine stay as snow for the majority of the event and pick up 4-6″ inches of snowfall.

Of course the trouble with Thursday storm right now is that the heaviest snowfall window for I-90, Rte 2, southern NH & VT is right before the morning commute. So the Thursday AM commute might be tricky.

GFS P-Type Forecast – WeatherBell, LLC

Snowfall Forecast

Thursday Snowfall


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