Good morning all and a happy Monday to you. Last night’s Superbowl seemed a little anti-climatic without the Patriots in it this year. I’m feeling much more energized this morning than normal. Maybe it was the lack of emotional investment in the game or maybe its because the weather pattern looks more active (dun dun dun).

Precipitable Water Anomaly Forecast Mon-Friday (GFS) – Tropical Tidbits

To help demonstrate the upcoming active period the loop above shows this weeks precipitable water anomaly forecast from one of the American computer guidance models. Precipitable water is defined as the total volume of water contained within an atmospheric column (i.e. the total amount of water above your head).  The anomaly part just compares the upcoming forecast to historical averages.

In the loop above, green/blue areas represent an atmosphere with above normal water content while brown regions are below normal content. Pretty obvious to see that the east coast and New England are in for a period of above average precipitable water towards the end of the week. As multiple impulses move north from the southeast, multiple periods of unsettled weather will affect the region. Particularly, towards the end of the week.

Monday

Monday is relatively quiet for much of the region. A few scattered flurries across the mountains. Afternoon temperatures: 40s south; 30s north.

Monday 2/3 Precipitation Type – Tropical Tidbits

Tuesday

A light flurry (north) or sprinkle (south) is possible on Tuesday. Morning temperatures: 30s south; 20 north. Afternoon temperatures: 40s south; 30s north.

Tuesday 2/4 Precipitation Type – Tropical Tidbits

Wednesday

Light snow/rain very early Wednesday AM for southern New England. Temperatures cool during the day as cold air from Canada presses south. Morning temperatures: 30 south; 20 north. Afternoon temperatures: 30 south; 20 central; teens north.

Wednesday 2/5 Precipitation Type – Tropical Tidbits

Thursday

The first of two significant impulses of moisture moves through the region Thursday morning. Temperatures are cold enough for everywhere to start as snow. But as the morning hours progress, temperatures aloft will warm above freezing and southern New England will transition from snow to sleet to potentially ice.  Eventually during the afternoon, surface temperatures warm above freezing and the precipitation will switch over to a light mist.

Right now, snow accumulations look on the lighter side in southern New England. 1-2″ along the coast with 2-4″ inland. Central New England where it stays snow the longest could see 4-6″.  A more refined map will be issued later this week.

Thursday 2/6 Precipitation Forecast – WeatherBell, LLC

Friday

The second significant impulse of moisture follows quickly on the heals of the first Friday morning as rain overspreads the region. Warm air has pushed into northern New England so even up north the precip will fall as rain or a mix.  Cold air may try to work into the back side of the system and some places, especially up north, may finish as snow.

Friday 2/7 Precipitation Type – WeatherBell, LLC

Temperatures across the region will vary widely as the south coast may be in the 50s while northern Maine is in the teens.

Friday Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC

Saturday

Saturday looks quiet and dry with morning temperatures in the 20s south and teens north. Afternoon temperatures look seasonable with 30s south, 20s central and 10s north.

Saturday 2/8 Precipitation Type – Tropical Tidbits

I’ll keep a close eye on the Thursday/Friday forecast and update when the time is right. Stay tuned.

-Chris


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