As we enjoy this wet and dreary Thursday morning let’s look ahead to what the weekend may have in store for the region.
Friday
Friday P-Type & MSLP – WeatherBell, LLC
As Thursday’s storm system spins in southern Canada, a mountain effect snow shower or two can’t be ruled out for northern New England.
Further to our west, the lake effect snow machine will turn on and bring 12″+ to a handful of locations.
NWS 2 Day Snowfall Forecast – WeatherBell, LLC
Saturday & Sunday
Both weekend days look mostly sunny with only a few clouds the further north one lives. The weekend will be on the cold side as cold air funnels in behind the departing storm system.
Saturday Afternoon Highs – WeatherBell, LLC
Temperatures will only reach into the low 30s south and low 20s north. But overall, a quiet late February weekend.
Looking Ahead
There is very little opportunity for snowfall in the extended forecast. In fact, the first portion of March looks warm in the temperature department. I would hate to jinx us, but winter is all but done. In the words of the great Bill Belichick: “We’re on to Spring”.
-Chris
What a beautiful Monday on tap for New England. Our first taste of spring weather is upon us. Temperatures pushing 60 F in southern New England will make for an excellent afternoon to play hooky.
Monday
Monday Morning Satellite – College of DuPage
Nary a cloud in the sky across much of New England Monday AM will give way to warm temperatures this afternoon. Far left of the loop above; the leading edge of clouds associated with the Wed/Thu weather maker are just entering the screen. Clouds move in during the late afternoon and stick with the region for much of the week.
Monday Afternoon Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy with afternoon temperatures near 50 south & central; 40s further north. While cloudy, no precipitation is expected.
Wednesday
An area of low pressure lifting northward through the mid-west will cause Wednesday to be mostly cloudy with the occasional sprinkle south or flurry north. Afternoon temperatures in the 40s south and 30s north. Towards the end of the loop a secondary area of low pressure begins to form along the New Jersey coastline. While this would often times be a good set-up for snow, temperatures across southern and central New England are much too warm.
Wednesday P-Type & MSLP – WeatherBell, LLC
Thursday
The Thursday AM commute will likely be impacted as the new low pressure system matures over southern New England. Heavier rain south and wet snow north will rule the morning.
Thursday P-Type & MSLP – WeatherBell, LLC
Based on forecast trends, there is a high probability of greater than 3″ of snow for much of northern New England, but as you can, a 0-10% chance for much of southern New England.
Probability of >3″ of snow – WeatherBell, LLC
Friday
As the storm system clears out, cooler temperatures will return with afternoon temperatures in the 30s south and 20s north.
Weekend
Looks quiet.
-Chris
Happy Friday all! Taking a look ahead at this coming weekend, which features National Margarita day Saturday, the weather across New England looks remarkably quiet.
Friday
Friday AM Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
A very chilly start to this Friday as bus stop temperatures range from low teens south to below zero north. Abundant sunshine for all except the southeast coast, Cape & Islands this morning as a few ocean effect snowflakes move in off the water.
Friday AM Radar – College of DuPage
Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the upper 20s south, teens to the north.
Friday Afternoon Highs
Saturday
Temperatures rebound on Saturday as southern New England will push 40 and northern New England will approach freezing. Perfect day for you skiers to hit the slopes.
Saturday Afternoon High Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Sunday
Sunday looks even better than Saturday as afternoon temperatures soar into the low 50s in southern New England while northern New England approaches 40 degrees. Will be quite nice after Friday mornings cold temperatures.
Sunday Afternoon Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Long Range
A significant storm system for mid-week next week is being hinted at by computer guidance. Right now this storm looks to track up through the Hudson River Valley which would put New England on the warm side of the system. There is plenty of time for changes to the forecast, so I’ll keep my eye on this one.
500 mb Height Anomaly – WeatherBell, LLC
-Chris
Hello all and a happy Monday to you. It’s a beautiful February Monday to boot with bright blue skies and warm temperatures.
The majority of the work week is quiet across New England except for Tuesday. The end of the work week brings the return of some more seasonable temperatures.
Monday
Monday Morning Satellite – College of DuPage
Just a few fair weather clouds dot the Monday morning sky. This won’t change throughout the day. Temperatures will be on the warmer side with afternoon temperatures in the 40s south, 30s central and 20s north.
Tuesday
Tuesday Precipitation Type – WeatherBell, LLC
An area of low pressure tracking north of the region will swing a period of precipitation through tomorrow late morning and afternoon. Everyone south of the Massachusetts turnpike starts and ends as rain. North of there, most locations start as snow, but quickly flip to rain. Snow accumulations should be light with only 1-2″ inches expected. Further north, more snow is expected.
NWS Snowfall Forecast
Currently the National Weather Service is expecting the highest snowfall amounts across the mountains of New Hampshire and Maine.
Wednesday -> Friday
Sunshine returns for the remainder of the work week, however temperatures do drop as the week progresses.
Wednesday; afternoon highs: 30s south, 20s, north.
Thursday; afternoon highs: 20s south, 10s central, single digits north.
Friday; afternoon highs: 20s south, 10s north.
Where’s the snow?
I don’t want to let my guard down because we’ve certainly had significant snowstorms into April, but one has to look pretty hard to feel optimistic about snowfall chances in southern New England. Here is the output from last nights modeling ensemble guidance. Shown below is the average snowfall through early March:
ECMWF Ensemble Snowfall Mean – WeatherBell, LLC
GFS Ensemble Snowfall Mean – WeatherBell, LLC
CMC Ensemble Snowfall Mean – WeatherBell, LLC
Based on these three computer guidance products, which represent the average snowfall for a series of computer model runs, the Boston metro area may only receive 3-6″ of snow through early March. The areas below average snowfall winter looks to continue.
In the word of the great Bill Belichick: We’re on to Spring.(?)
-Chris
Do you remember last Thursday’s forecast? For reference, here is my blog from last week: https://chrishamptonweather.wordpress.com/2020/02/04/thursday-am-mix/. If I just left you to read that blog over again, then I think you would be all set. A very similar forecast is in store for this Thursday, except this time, surface temperatures aren’t as favorable. So maybe southern areas don’t accumulate.
Temperature Evolution
Surface Temperatures – hover around 32F for a while before eventually warmer air works its way in south of the Massachusetts turnpike. An afternoon spike into the 40s to near 50 looks possible.
Thursday 1a -> 7p Surface Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Temperatures Aloft – Spike through the morning. Temperatures just above the surface spike well above freezing switching snow over to sleet and freezing rain. This rapid onslaught of warm air aloft will make the window for snowfall very small to almost non-existent in many locations.
925mb Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Precipitation Evolution
This type of storm system comes with a pretty distinct precipitation evolution. Most locations start as snow. After about an hour and an inch of snow, parts of CT, RI, and southeast MA quickly switch over to sleet and rain. Central MA, southern VT & NH hang on to the snow for just a bit longer, maybe a 3-hr window where 2 inches of snow accumulates before switching over to an hour of sleet followed by a few hours of mist/drizzle. Central NH & VT and Maine stay as snow for the majority of the event and pick up 4-6″ inches of snowfall.
Of course the trouble with Thursday storm right now is that the heaviest snowfall window for I-90, Rte 2, southern NH & VT is right before the morning commute. So the Thursday AM commute might be tricky.
GFS P-Type Forecast – WeatherBell, LLC
Snowfall Forecast
Thursday Snowfall
Good morning all & happy Monday to you. This week is starting off similar to how the last one ended: overcast and slightly damp. Overall the weather pattern is an active one as New England finds itself with the jet stream overhead. The battleground between warm air to the south and cold air to the north is taking place over New England.
GFS MSLP Anamoly – WeatherBell, LLC
Shown above is mean sea level pressure anamolies for the next 5 days. In general the forecast includes high pressure (yellows) to the south of New England and low pressure (blue) moving over or north of New England. This pattern allows for the active week ahead. However, there isn’t much cold air around, so snow does not dominate the forecast.
Monday
On-going light drizzle and rain for the lower elevations. Snow is falling in the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills, Berkshires & across central & northern New England. Accumulations are expected to be light with only an inch or two in southern & central New England. Maybe a couple inches across northern New England, mainly Maine. Temperatures this afternoon: 40s south & 30s north.
Tuesday
Continued overcast and occasional sprinkle over southern New England. Northern New England clears out. Morning temperatures: 30s south, 20s central, and teens north. Afternoon temperatures: 40s south & 30s north.
Wednesday
Pretty quiet. Morning temperatures: 30s south & 20s north. Afternoon temperatures: 40s south & 30s north.
Thursday
Another round of snow, sleet & rain moves in early Thursday morning. Similar to last Thursday, snow transitions to a mix and rain across southern New England; mainly snow up north. Morning temperatures: 20s south, teens central and single digits north. Afternoon temperatures: 40s south, 30s central & 20s north.
Thursday Precipitation Type – WeatherBell, LLC
Friday
A leftover snow or rain shower can’t be ruled out for Friday. But mainly quiet. Morning temperatures: 20s south, teens central & near 0 north. Afternoon temperatures: 30s south, 20s central & teens north.
Looking further ahead, the pattern remains active, but no significant snow events are on the horizon yet.
-Chris
Good morning all. I wanted to update everyone regarding the forecast for tomorrow & Friday as we enter the unsettled portion of the week.
Wednesday
Temperatures hold steady and eventually begin to decrease during the afternoon as colder air from the north slowly drains south.
Wednesday Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Thursday
While temperatures are the surface may be cold enough to support snow across the region, temperatures aloft tell a different story. Looking a few thousand feet above the surface, at 1 am Thursday morning, temperatures off the ground along the south coast are already above freezing. Through the morning and into the afternoon temperatures aloft (and eventually at the surface) will warm above freezing and flip snow quickly to sleet, freezing rain, and rain.
850 mb Temperatures Thu 1a -> Fri 1a – WeatherBell, LLC
Based on the temperature profile of the atmosphere, the window for snow is really small in southern & central New England. Accumulations should be limited to an inch or two.
Thu 1a -> Fri 1a Precipitation Type – WeatherBell, LLC
There won’t be much snow, but the Thursday AM commute will be slippery with the little snow, sleet & ice the region receives falling perfectly timed. When Thursday ends, southern New England will likely have forgotten that it snowed. Northern New England may have a few inches to show for it.
Thursday Snowfall Forecast (NWS) – WeatherBell, LLC
Friday
Friday’s forecast is very similar to Thursday minus the snow, sleet and freezing rain in southern New England. This time, temperatures are too warm and its plain rain. Northern New England should receive a decent snowfall from this round as temperatures cool during the storm and areas flip to snow.
Fri 1a -> Sat 1a Precipitation Type – WeatherBell, LLC
Northern Maine could see upwards of a foot from round two as they are far enough north to stay snow the whole time.
Friday Snowfall (NWS) – WeatherBell, LLC
Total Snow
In the end, this is a northern New England storm with only the Thursday AM commute being disrupted in southern New England.
Thursday & Friday Snowfall Totals (NWS) – WeatherBell, LLC
-Chris
Good morning all! As previously advertised in yesterday’s weekly outlook, there is the threat of a wintry mix for the region Thursday morning. As the first of two significant moisture plumes lifts north out of the southeast, the moisture will ride over the top of a colder air mass and produce a mix of snow, sleet, ice and rain.
Thursday 4 am Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Early Thursday morning temperatures across the region are cold enough to support snow everywhere initially. However, warm air will quickly move in aloft melting the snowflakes and switching the snow over to sleet & freezing rain.
Thursday 925 mb Temperatures 4a->7p – WeatherBell, LLC
Warm air quickly wins the battle aloft as shown by the loop above where above freezing temperatures quickly move northward during the day Thursday.
Thursday Surface Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Because cold air is more dense (heavier) than warm air it is tougher to move which causes a lag between the temperatures aloft and at the surface. This lag is what causes the period of mixed precipitation. While temperatures aloft are well above freezing, temperatures at ground level are only a few degrees above. This is called an inversion. Typically temperatures decrease with height, but in this situation, temperatures will actually increase the higher one is. This inverted temperature profile causes the snowflakes to melt then refreeze as they fall through the atmosphere.
Overall, what this leads to is a period of snow, followed by a period of sleet & freezing rain which ends as either rain drops or more likely a prolonged mist Thursday afternoon.
Thursday 1a -> Friday 1a Precipitation Type – WeatherBell, LLC
Snowfall accumulations across the region should be minimal as the snowfall window is pretty small in most locations. Here is what I am currently thinking:
Thursday Snowfall
-Chris
Good morning all and a happy Monday to you. Last night’s Superbowl seemed a little anti-climatic without the Patriots in it this year. I’m feeling much more energized this morning than normal. Maybe it was the lack of emotional investment in the game or maybe its because the weather pattern looks more active (dun dun dun).
Precipitable Water Anomaly Forecast Mon-Friday (GFS) – Tropical Tidbits
To help demonstrate the upcoming active period the loop above shows this weeks precipitable water anomaly forecast from one of the American computer guidance models. Precipitable water is defined as the total volume of water contained within an atmospheric column (i.e. the total amount of water above your head). The anomaly part just compares the upcoming forecast to historical averages.
In the loop above, green/blue areas represent an atmosphere with above normal water content while brown regions are below normal content. Pretty obvious to see that the east coast and New England are in for a period of above average precipitable water towards the end of the week. As multiple impulses move north from the southeast, multiple periods of unsettled weather will affect the region. Particularly, towards the end of the week.
Monday
Monday is relatively quiet for much of the region. A few scattered flurries across the mountains. Afternoon temperatures: 40s south; 30s north.
Monday 2/3 Precipitation Type – Tropical Tidbits
Tuesday
A light flurry (north) or sprinkle (south) is possible on Tuesday. Morning temperatures: 30s south; 20 north. Afternoon temperatures: 40s south; 30s north.
Tuesday 2/4 Precipitation Type – Tropical Tidbits
Wednesday
Light snow/rain very early Wednesday AM for southern New England. Temperatures cool during the day as cold air from Canada presses south. Morning temperatures: 30 south; 20 north. Afternoon temperatures: 30 south; 20 central; teens north.
Wednesday 2/5 Precipitation Type – Tropical Tidbits
Thursday
The first of two significant impulses of moisture moves through the region Thursday morning. Temperatures are cold enough for everywhere to start as snow. But as the morning hours progress, temperatures aloft will warm above freezing and southern New England will transition from snow to sleet to potentially ice. Eventually during the afternoon, surface temperatures warm above freezing and the precipitation will switch over to a light mist.
Right now, snow accumulations look on the lighter side in southern New England. 1-2″ along the coast with 2-4″ inland. Central New England where it stays snow the longest could see 4-6″. A more refined map will be issued later this week.
Thursday 2/6 Precipitation Forecast – WeatherBell, LLC
Friday
The second significant impulse of moisture follows quickly on the heals of the first Friday morning as rain overspreads the region. Warm air has pushed into northern New England so even up north the precip will fall as rain or a mix. Cold air may try to work into the back side of the system and some places, especially up north, may finish as snow.
Friday 2/7 Precipitation Type – WeatherBell, LLC
Temperatures across the region will vary widely as the south coast may be in the 50s while northern Maine is in the teens.
Friday Temperatures – WeatherBell, LLC
Saturday
Saturday looks quiet and dry with morning temperatures in the 20s south and teens north. Afternoon temperatures look seasonable with 30s south, 20s central and 10s north.
Saturday 2/8 Precipitation Type – Tropical Tidbits
I’ll keep a close eye on the Thursday/Friday forecast and update when the time is right. Stay tuned.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 