Meteorological winter starts Sunday December 1st and guess what. Southern New England has a major winter storm coming for the Sunday PM – Tuesday AM time frame.

The Set Up

Last Tuesday an unusually strong storm system came ashore near the Oregon/California border. The storm system brought with it winds near hurricane strength and a maximum measured wind gust of 106 mph.

Click play on the loop below for a satellite loop of the storm coming approaching the west coast.

Atmospheric Energy Loop Tue PM – Friday PM – Pivotal Weather, LLC

After coming ashore near the Oregon/California border, the atmospheric energy (loop above) associated with the storm system has drifted south along the California coast and is now beginning to turn northward through the spine of the Rockies.

As a result an area of low pressure (blue) will form near Denver, Colorado this evening, strengthen and head northeast producing near blizzard conditions from Wyoming to Minnesota.  A strong area of high pressure (red) in southern Canada will halt the storms northward movement and force it to slide eastward as shown by the loop below.

MSLP Loop – Pivotal Weather, LLC

As the storm approaches the east coast a new area of low pressure will form near Atlantic City and drift east-northeastward towards Nantucket. The storms progression south of SNE will be very slow, allowing for a long drawn out storm system.

The Storm

Sunday Morning – Pivotal Weather, LLC

As the slowly weakening upper-Midwest blizzard drifts across the southern Great Lakes Sunday morning, moisture laden Gulf of Mexico air will be drawn northward ahead of the system. At the same time cold Canadian air is pushed southward via the high pressure to the north.

This moisture rich air moves into SNE Sunday afternoon from southwest to northeast.

Sunday 7a -> Monday 1a – Pivotal Weather, LLC.

Precipitation rates Monday AM will lighten up in most areas as the new area of low pressure off the New Jersey coast begins to the strengthen.  Places south of the Massachusetts turnpike may flip over to freezing drizzle or rain for most of the day Monday.

Monday 1a -> 7p – Pivotal Weather, LLC

Late Monday afternoon precipitation rates will pick up again for most locations as the surface low pressure strengthens and drifts eastward.

Monday 1p – Tuesday 1p – Pivotal Weather, LLC

Another round of heavier snow impacts SNE late Monday PM into the overnight hours. Light snow lingers into Tuesday morning, but by then accumulations are done.

Precipitation Types

Precipitation Type Forecast

First Call Snowfall Map

Snow Accumulation Sunday PM -> Tuesday AM

The ranges on the map above are bit wider than I would like. But with this storm system really consisting of two distinct periods of accumulating snowfall, I’m not confident yet in suggesting more exact amounts. I do think that someone in one of the 12″+ zones may end up somewhere in the 18-24″ range depending on how the storm unfolds.

Will likely have an update tomorrow.

-Chris

 


Posted by in Forecast