Good morning all! Everyone’s favorite four letter word made it into the forecast these past couple of days.  Yes it is true, your favorite local TV meteorologist likely said the S word yesterday.  Hopefully their use of the word snow came with caveats regarding storm track, arrival of cold air, and other uncertainties.  Because to be honest, I’m not confident in accumulations south of the NH/VT border away from the elevated terrain of the Worcester hills.

ECMWF Precipitation – Pivotal Weather, LLC

The above forecast loop starts Thursday morning and ends Friday afternoon.  A weak are of low pressure riding along a frontal boundary brings with it a 12 hr period of precipitation.  Temperatures to the north of this boundary are cold enough to support snow. Rain or a mix of rain & snow will occur along and south of the boundary.

As for accumulations, I’m not confident enough to put numbers on a map. I do think that the ski resorts of northern New England have a good shot at 6 inches or more.  I do have enough confidence in expected precipitation type with the system as shown below.  The purple and orange outlines, and adjacent blue and green areas are the locations where confidence is lacking.  Currently, there is a bit of unknown with regards to the location of the frontal boundary and the rain/snow line.

Anticipated Precipitation Types

This storm system for Thursday night into Friday morning is likely not the regions only chance of snow over the next couple of weeks.  The next couple of weeks will feature below normal temperatures as highlighted by the 8-14 day temperature probability forecast from the Climate Prediction Center.  The below graphic shows that there is a high probability for below normal temperatures east of the Rockies.

8-14 Day Temperature Probability – CPC

The period to watch for the next potential snow threat is around mid-week next week.  However, that is an eternity away in terms of weather prediction, but just something to keep an eye out for.

I’ll continue to keep my eye on the Thu night/Friday morning system and update the forecast as things become more clearly defined.

-Chris


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