After last weeks drawn out, occasionally rainy, not very windy storm that drifted south of Nantucket for a few days, we have another storm system in the forecast. A rapidly developing area of low pressure will impact the region overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning.
Wednesday AM Weather Map – Weather Prediction Center
Currently a large, but relatively weak area of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes is occluding and dying. As the storm continues its slow demise, a new area of low pressure will quickly form over the DelMarVa area. This new area of low pressure should rapidly intensify and quickly head northeast reaching its peak strength over central New England Thursday morning. The below loop shows the Weather Prediction Center’s forecast for storm’s position and precipitation for the time period beginning Wednesday at 2 pm through Thursday 8 pm.
Forecast Maps – Weather Prediction Center
As you can see from the loop above, this storm is moving fairly quickly. But that doesn’t mean the impacts will be lessened. This storm will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic. The water vapor imagery below highlights the connection from the Gulf.
Wednesday AM Water Vapor – College of DuPage
This connection will allow for a lot of water to fall in a relative short period of time; there are a lot of reds and yellows moving overhead in the loop below. The loop runs from 5 pm Wednesday through 11 am Thursday.
RGEM Forecast Precipitation – Tropical Tidbits
Even though most locations only experience 6-8 hours of rainfall, the amounts should still be quite high. The Boston National Weather Service office is forecasting a widespread 2-3″ rainfall for the region. Higher amounts in the elevated terrain of northern Worcester County and the Berkshires. Since the leaves are beginning to fall, be sure to clear storm drains to prevent street flooding.
Storm Total Precipitation – NWS Boston
With such a strong storm overhead, there will be the potential for a period of very strong wind gusts. Coastal areas should experience winds gusting to 50 mph at times. Inland may see a few gusts of that magnitude, but as is always the case, winds will be weaker inland; closer to the 30-40 mph ballpark.
Forecast Wind Gusts – NWS Boston
Please note, that not all areas will experience the strongest winds at the same time. Eastern areas, particularly the coast line and Cape will experience the strongest winds overnight Wednesday into Thursday coinciding with the period of heavy rainfall. I am expecting inland areas to experience their strongest winds for a brief period just before the heavy rain ends and during the day Thursday as colder air moves in aloft and allows winds to mix down to the surface.
Finally, the coast lines along northern Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine may face quite a beating from this system. As the storm matures and reaches maximum intensity, a strong low level jet will direct a prolong period of strong winds up against the coast. This should allow for a period of high surf to pound the coastline.
925 mb – College of DuPage
In summary: 2-3″ of rain tonight with winds gusting 30-50 mph tonight and tomorrow depending on location. Please take a few minutes to clear those storm drains, double check your power outage kit (just in case) and enjoy the foliage today as I’m not sure how much will be left Friday. The weekend looks great by the way.
-Chris
Hello all! Last night’s cold front and associated rainfall has pushed offshore. However, it’s not going to go very far. Eventually, the first coastal storm of the season will develop along it and bring a prolonged period of cool, damp and overcast conditions to Southern New England.
Tue 10-8-19 Satellite – College of DuPage
As shown in this morning’s satellite loop above, there is a large expanse of moisture and cloud cover up and down the East Coast. Eventually, a consolidated area of low pressure will form among the chaos and drift northward. As it approaches the northeast, batches of rain and wind will periodically move ashore. How far north and west the periods of rain penetrate inland is a big question mark right now. However, the further southeast one’s local is, the greater the chances of experiencing impacts.
NAM MSLP & Precipitation – Pivotal Weather
Wednesday
Wednesday is dry for the most part. Showers may begin to push onshore along the south coast and Cape. Definitely not a beach day.
NAM Wednesday Precipitation – Pivotal Weather
Thursday
Thursday looks like the worst day of the week. Thursday is the day forecasted to feature the majority of the rainfall from this system, especially south and east. Eventually, the precipitation will push further inland, but overall, just a cool and raw day for all. Notice how the storm center hasn’t moved between the two days.
NAM Thursday Precipitation – Pivotal Weather
Friday
Friday will be reminiscent of Thursday, but is likely more of a prolonged mist versus solid rain. As the storm center continues to spin south of the region, a prolonged easterly fetch should help to transport Atlantic moisture over the region. The coastlines likely get the worst of it on Friday as winds and waves pile up for a third consecutive day. Beach erosion and minor coastal inundation are big threats.
NAM Friday Precipitation – Pivotal Weather
Temperatures
While temperatures won’t be too cold, they’ll still be pretty chilly as the rest of the work week likely sticks in the low to mid-50s. Note: green shading = 40s; yellow shading = 50s.
NAM 2m Temperatures Wed-Fri – College of DuPage
Rainfall Totals
At present it looks like most locals should see on the order of 1″ of rainfall drawn out of an extended period of time. Places further south and east will likely see more rainfall, something closer to 1-3″.
Rainfall through Saturday – NWS Boston
Northern Plains Blizzard
If you scroll back up to the second GIF of this blog, turn your attention to the northern plains. While we deal with our weak low and drizzle, the northern plains will be experiencing a blizzard.
GFS Precipitation – Pivotal Weather
6-12″ of snow and high winds seem likely across many areas. Glad that’s not us.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 