Hi all! It seems like forever since there was actually snow in the forecast because well it has been. The regions last significant snowfall occurred back in mid-November. Now a full two months later and we’ve yet to see another snow “storm”. Sure there have been the occassional round of snow squalls and flurries, but a legitimate storm that required the plow trucks has escaped us for a long time now.

That’s not to say that there hasn’t been snow around. In fact many places to our south, particularly down in Virginia and North Carolina have received more snow than we have. Finally after two months of waiting, it seems the overall atmospheric pattern is beginning to adjust into a more favorable setup for Southern New England (SNE) snowfall events.

Friday

The first of which occurs Friday. As a weak storm system drops east out of the Rocky Mountains and moves our direction. While this storm won’t bring substantial totals in any way, it will be the most snow we have seen since November.

Friday Storm Progression – Tropical Tidbits

The above loop begins Thursday afternoon and ends overnight Friday into Saturday. As shown a weak area of low pressure moves out of the Ohio River Valley and tracks northeast across SNE. It brings with it a light batch of rain and snow. Right now, those places north and west of Route 495 and north of the Mass Pike have the best shot at staying all snow, but the rain/snow line may progress to the MA/NH border Friday morning.

Friday Potential Snowfall

Saturday

Following Friday’s light snowfall, temperatures will be quite chilly. Morning lows in the single digits and teens for many will give way to high temperatures in the upper teens and twenties across the region.

Saturday Afternoon High Temperatures – WeatherBELL

SUNDAY

Late Friday as our first storm system is exiting to the northeast, our next one will begin its trek along a similar path. Dropping out of the Rockies and sweeping across the nation, this storm will gather significantly more Gulf of Mexico moisture. Moving northeast out of the Ohio River Valley the storm center will likely traverse across SNE. With this potential storm track, all precipitation types (snow, sleet, ice, rain) are on the table as evidenced by the variety of colors in the loops below.

Sunday Storm Progression – Tropical Tidbits

The above loop begins Friday evening and ends Monday morning.

Sunday Storm Progression – Tropical Tidbits

The above loop begins Saturday afternoon and ends Monday morning.

As always when there is a forecast involving the rain/ice/sleet/snow line, a myriad of factors are at play that ultimately determines who sees what types of precipitation. Right now, here is my best guess as what forms of precipitation locations can expect. Very much subject to change over the coming days.

Sunday Precipitation Type Forecast

Important notes to go along with current precipitation type thoughts:

  • Where it stays all snow, upwards of 12″ is possible;
  • The areas in red:
    • Potential for upwards of 6″ of snow;
    • Followed by a firm crust of sleet;
    • On top of which significant icing, >0.25″, is possible.
  • The area in green:
    • Potential for plowable snowfall;
    • Followed by a change to sleet & ice;
    • Transitioning to rain for a time.
  • The area in purple: a few inches of snow transitions to rain.
  • All areas likely end as a bit of snow. A couple additional inches are possible.

Also, the specifics of the forecast are very likely to change. This system will be fascinating to watch unfold, but will be very tricky to forecast.

Long Range

In the extended, a long wave atmospheric pattern of lower pressure across the eastern half of the North American continent will lead to increased changes of storminess. The second half of winter should certainly produce more snow than the first. Whether or not we will see the slightly above average snowfall in SNE that I originally predicted is tough to tell at the moment. We shall wait and see.

ECMWF Ens 500 mb Heights – Tropical Tidbits

-Chris


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