But first, let me reflect on our first region-wide snowfall event from last Friday the 16th. Below is my forecast snow map that I admittedly did not have time to post on this page, but I circulated at work. Following it is the observed snow totals.

Final Snowfall Forecast for 11/16/18

And what was observed:

Storm Total Snowfall – NWS

For the most part I underestimated the amount of snow that would fall in Southern New England by about 2″. Snowfall rates were slightly higher than expected which allowed many locations to pick up more snow than forecasted. Particularly the further south one lives in the area. Heavier snowfall rates allowed for quicker accumulations which allowed for higher totals in areas where I anticipated warmer marine air would overtake the cold and limit snow totals. Lesson learned.

Now to the forecast, after a weak area of showers and snow showers moved through early this morning, a similar set-up is in-store for tomorrow morning as well. However, tomorrow’s system looks to become a bit more developed and could drop a few inches or so for those outside of 495.

Northeast Radar 3 pm 11-19-18 – College of DuPage

The batch of precipitation moving northeast through Pennsylvania is associated with a barely detectable area of low pressure. If you squint really hard, you can make out a surface circulation over eastern Ohio in the image below. I have added the red L to draw your attention.

Northeast Surface Observations 3 pm 11-19-18 – Storm Prediction Center

As evidenced by the radar loop above, this batch of precipitation is cruising northeast and by 7 pm this evening, a light mist or drizzle is falling. Most locations start as rain as temperatures across the region are above freezing. South of the Mass Pike, temps are in the 40s while north of the pike temperatures are in the mid-30s. As we progress through the evening, temperatures will fall and rain will flip to snow from north to south. Just how far south that flip occurs is the question.

TIMELINE

By 7 pm this evening, a light mist and areas of heavy fog have moved in. Snow is confined to the higher elevations of southern Vermont and New Hampshire.

7 PM Monday – Tropical Tidbits

As the night progresses, temperatures will slowly fall below freezing from north to south as the storm system approaches from the southwest.

1 AM Tuesday – Tropical Tidbits

Just in time for the morning commute Tuesday AM, rain will flip to snow in southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts. Particularly north and west of 495 and north of route 2. It is during the early hours of the work day that snow will fall the heaviest.

7 AM Tuesday – Tropical Tidbits

By early Tuesday afternoon, the low pressure is beginning to lift away from the coast and precipitation will shut off from southwest to northeast.

1 PM Tuesday – Tropical Tidbits

By Tuesday AM the storm center has pulled well into the Gulf of Maine and those who received snow can clean out.

7 PM Tuesday – Tropical Tidbits

SNOWFALL

Snowfall Tuesday 11-20-18

THANKSGIVING

FYI – Thanksgiving Day is going to really cold. We’re talking potential record low temperatures for the Holiday. Here are the potential morning low temperatures and afternoon highs for Thursday. Lows in the single digits with highs in the teens to near 20. BRRR!

Thursday AM Low Temperatures – WeatherBell

Thursday PM High Temperature – WeatherBell

-Chris

 


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