Good evening all! What a pattern we are in, a string of storms tracking up the east coast and soaking New England.  Starting with the tornado “outbreak” of October 23rd through the end of this week, at least 8 strong storm systems will have crossed the region. IF this pattern had developed during the winter months I would imagine that we would be challenging the snow blitz of 2015.

Storm #1 – Tuesday

First storm system for this week moves in overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning. The morning commute is a mess as heavy rain overspreads the region.

Rain organizing over the southeast will shift north and overspread the area after midnight.

Radar – 8 pm Monday 11/12 – COD

By 7 am Tuesday morning, a steady rain has taken hold of the region. Snow is falling in the higher elevations in Northern New England.

7 am Tuesday Morning – Tropical Tidbits

Rain moves out during the early afternoon. By 1 pm the rain is beginning to end for much of Southern New England.

1 pm Tuesday Afternoon – Tropical Tidbits

When all is said and done, a widespread inch to inch and a half of rain falls for most locations.

Total Rainfall – WeatherBell

Storm #2 – Thursday Night & Friday

Storm number 2 is much more interesting. It forms as a result of a strong atmospheric wave currently located over southwest Texas.

500 mb Vorticity – Tropical Tidbits

The surface low pressure center has origins along the Gulf Coast, so plenty of moisture will be available.

1 am Thursday – Tropical Tidbits

Throughout the day Thursday, a low pressure center will strength along the east coast and move northward. Precipitation moves into the area late Thursday evening and falls overnight and into Friday morning. There is the possibility that enough cold air will be around that the storm could start as snow.

Thursday Evening – Tropical Tidbits

Depending on how much cold air is available, the snow could linger through much of the overnight hours.

Overnight Thursday into Friday – Tropical Tidbits

And if things break the right way, snow could last into the morning hours for those locations away from the coast and with some elevation.

Friday Morning – Tropical Tidbits

The storm winds down around noon Friday. The above images should be taken with caution. The difference between rain and snow in Southern New England is only a degree or two. Small changes in the storm evolution will make big differences.

Follow up blog to follow when the forecast becomes more clear.

-Chris


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