Two quick things out of the gate: 1) Boy did we take the brunt of last Friday’s storm on the chin!  2) Man did I mess up the snowfall forecast east of the Connecticut River…….turns out there wasn’t enough cold air around to flip us to snow.  Live, learn and move on.

Speaking of moving on, our next storm is on tap for Wednesday afternoon – Thursday morning.  This one is what you could call a more traditional New England snow storm with heavy snow over the interior, a rain/snow line along I-95 and more manageable wind gusts of 30-40 mph.

Our Wednesday storm system is currently causing blizzard conditions across the Dakotas and bringing heavy snowfall to  Minnesota.  Throughout Tuesday and the early parts of Wednesday it will drift east-southeast across the midwest towards the east coast.   As it approaches the east coast early Wednesday morning an area of low pressure will begin forming near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.   This storm center will move north along the eastern seaboard towards Atlantic City, New Jersey.   At this point, the storm center will receive a slight kick in the rear and be pushed east towards Nantucket before continuing its trip northward.   The overall storm track should look something like this.

Likely Storm Track

TIMELINE

Heaviest of the snow falls from 5-6 pm Wednesday through 5-6 am Thursday morning.   Don’t be surprised if there is some light snow in the air as early as Wednesday morning.  Sometimes ahead of a snow storm (and particular ahead of our bigger ones) an easterly wind direction pushes enough moisture inland that light snows (little to no accumulation) break out ahead of the main show.   That looks possible early Wednesday.

7 am Wednesday – Tropical Tidbits

More steady snowfall overtakes the region early Wednesday afternoon.  Note the rain over the Cape and extreme southeast Massachusetts.  The rain/snow line should march northwest during the afternoon.

1 pm Wednesday – Tropical Tidbits

By the time that the evening commute rolls around, most locations are seeing moderate to heavy snowfall.  There’s going to be a 6-8 hour period where snowfall rates are on the order of 1-2″+ per hour.  Rain/snow line has moved northwest to around I-95.

5 pm Wednesday – Tropical Tidbits

By 1 am Thursday the storm center is passing very near to Nantucket.  Heavy snows continue inland.  Precipitation may shut off across the Cape, SE Mass and Rhode Island for a time as dryer air works in aloft.

1 am Thursday – Tropical Tidbits

By Thursday morning the storm has rounded the Cape and is slowly making its way into the Gulf of Maine.  The majority of precipitation has ended for Southern New England except for some light snowfall wrapping around the system.

7 am Thursday – Tropical Tidbits

Light snowfall may linger into early Thursday afternoon as the storm sits and spins in the Gulf of Maine; especially across southern NH and Maine.

1 pm Thursday – Tropical Tidbits

To summarize, snow breaks out Wednesday afternoon.  The Wednesday evening commute is likely a mess.  The Thursday morning commute is likely impacted as the cleanup begins.

WIND

Winds from this storm system will be nowhere near as strong as last Friday’s storm.  Last Friday many locations gusted to hurricane strength and portions of the Cape gusted over 90 mph.

Max Wind Gusts – WxBell

WAVES/COASTAL FLOODING

Even though Friday’s storm is now thousands of miles away, the ocean off the northeast coast is still very angry.   Large waves and higher than normal tides continue to pound the coast line.   One has to wonder how much more it can take.  Large waves and coastal flooding is expected from this storm.  Coastal inundation shouldn’t reach the level it did on Friday, but those areas that typically flood during a winter storm should expect to do so.

SNOWFALL

Here is a good graphic from the NWS office in Taunton, MA outlining just how far inland the rain/snow line progresses.  Now I personally think they might be a little too far west.  I have drawn where I think it will ultimately park itself.

Precipitation Type Forecast – NWS Boston

First call snowfall map:

Total Storm Snowfall

-Chris


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