Good afternoon everyone and a Happy New Year to you and yours. Let’s talk about a snow storm shall we? The storm that I mentioned in my previous post has trended westward towards us in the computer guidance and looks to pass near enough to Southern New England to give us a good 12-15 hour blitz of heavy snow and very strong wind gusts.
Current Satellite
5 pm 1/2/18 Water Vapor Image
Over the next day and a half two pieces of atmospheric energy (circled above) will traverse the eastern half of the U.S. and converge just east of Jacksonville, Florida. From there an area of low pressure will form and track north-northeastward along the eastern seaboard and pass close enough to New England for impacts to be felt.
Fast forwarding to Thursday: Snow moves in from south to north during the early morning hours between 4 and 7 am. The morning commute will be affected and likely a mess.
7 am Thursday
7 am Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
The heaviest of the snow falls from 10 am to 7 pm as the low pressure center nears our latitude.
1 pm Thursday
1 pm Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
As we approach the evening hours and the storm reaches our latitude things begin to quiet down and the snow will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast.
7 pm Thursday
7 pm Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
By midnight the storm has wrapped up in southern New England and has begun to wind down in northern New England as the storm pulls up into eastern Canada.
1 am Friday
1 am Friday – Tropical Tidbits
When all is said and done this quick hitting powerhouse will drop upwards of a foot of snow in some spots. The real story with this one could end up being the winds. The strength of this storm system is going to be quite anomalous for our latitude. As the storm center passes by it will have a central pressure rivaling that of strong hurricanes. Winds along the coast and even inland should be quite strong. Here is one computer model’s output for potential wind gusts from the system.
Potential Max Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts – WeatherBELL
IF power outages occur then things could go quickly downhill for those without power. Temperatures following the storm for Friday and the weekend drop to near/below zero again. Sunday morning could approach record cold levels in some spots.
Quick side note about this storm……it is going to be absolutely massive. The entirety of the circulation is going to encompass some 4000 plus miles in diameter taking up the eastern third of the U.S. and most of the western Atlantic Ocean.
850 mb Circulation – Ryan Maue on Twitter
Total Snowfall
When all is said and done here is what I am currently thinking for snowfall totals. I just have this feeling that someone is going to sit under a heavy band and up with 18-20″. I can’t decide if that is near Boston along the rain/snow line or if it is in the Worcester Hills. But it’s out there somewhere.
Storm Total Snowfall – First Attempt 630 pm 1/2/18
Will update as needed tomorrow.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 