Good afternoon everyone! We have a storm system moving in for Wednesday morning that will bring with it some snow for many places. Places inside of say route 128/495 will have to deal with some warmer air and mixed precipitation. But where it stays all snow, a plowable event is likely.
Currently the NWS has those counties in northern CT, RI and outside of SE MA under a Winter Storm Watch. Meaning that the potential for greater than 6″ of snow exists.
NWS Taunton Weather Advisories
The timeframe for this system is from approximately 2 am Wednesday morning to around noon. Snow will overspread the region from southwest to northeast before dawn Wednesday. The morning commute will be significantly impacted for those areas where snow is falling. Those would be the areas in the blue shading in above image. The evening commute shouldn’t be impacted except for cleanup activities taking place.
When all is said an done it’s a plowable event for the northwest zones.
Total Snowfall
Will advise with update if necessary.
-Chris
Good morning all. Last night’s computer guidance has continued the slight westward trend with Thursday’s storm. Which only adds confidence to the forecast from last night.
Here are the facts:
- A significant winter storm is imminent for tomorrow across New England;
- Snow breaks out from south to north between 4 and 7 am;
- Heaviest snow falls between 9 am and 5 pm;
- Winds will gust over 50 mph for many (especially near the coast);
- Blizzard conditions will be widespread across eastern Southern New England; and
- Upwards of 12″ of snow or more for many locations.
Current Satellite
The two pieces of atmospheric energy that I highlighted yesterday are rapidly approaching the Gulf coast. In response an area of low pressure has formed off the east coast of Florida. It will begin its trek up the east coast today. Undergoing everyone’s new favorite buzz word bombogenesis. Bombogenesis is a highly technical meteorological term for a storm system strengthening by 24 mb or more in less than 24 hours. It is in essence a meteorological “bomb”. In reality, tomorrow’s storm has the potential to intensify by nearly 48 mb in 24 hours.
9 am Water Vapor Image – COD
As a quick aside, it is actively snowing in northern Florida.
Florida Snow
Watches and Warnings
Ahead of tomorrow’s storm the National Weather Service in Taunton has issued Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Blizzard Warnings (orange) for much of the region. The blue shade across New Hampshire is for a Winter Storm Watch. This should be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning soon. Not seen in this image is a dark green color for the coast lines. A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued for tomorrow as well. Strong onshore winds coupled with the day time high tide could lead to potential significant coastal flooding; especially in low lying, east facing areas.
Watches and Warnings – National Weather Service
Timeline
Snow overspreads the region south to north during the early morning hours between 4 and 7 am.
5 am Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
By 10 am heavy wind swept snow has taken hold across the area. Blizzard conditions will be occurring along the coast and at times over the eastern half of southern New England.
10 am Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
The heaviest of the snow fall from approximately 9 am to 5 pm tomorrow. After 5 pm things begin to wind down from southwest to northeast as the storm center approaches out latitude.
5 pm Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
By midnight the storm center has passed our latitude and is unleashing it’s fury on eastern Maine and Atlantic Canada. Outside of the occasional snow shower or flurry, the snow will be over and the digging can begin.
Midnight Friday – Tropical Tidbits
Wind
The forecast from yesterday remains unchanged in that a highly anomalous; i.e. abnormally strong, storm system, with a central pressure equal to that of a category three hurricane is the forecast for tomorrow. With such a strong system, the potential for damaging wind gusts and power outages is high. Especially for southeastern Massachusetts, areas near/along any coastline and the Cape and Islands.
Potential Wind Gusts – WeatherBELL
Should power outages occur then the real trouble begins. Temperatures following the storm are forecasted to drop back into the single digits to below zero for Friday – Sunday for much of the region. It is going to get very cold, very fast should power be lost and heating fail.
Snowfall
When all is said and done many should be digging out from greater than 8″ of snowfall. The limiting factor with this system is time. It only snows for about 12 hours in most spots. To hit the higher totals we are really going to have to ring as much moisture out of the atmosphere as we can in a short time. Some places should be able to do just that. As I said yesterday, I have this feeling that there is going to be a pocket where someone picks up 18-20″, but with such a dynamic storm as this one, pinpointing that location is nearly impossible. My leading candidates are the route 24 area or northern Worcester county. But only time will tell.
Ultimately I have decided not to make any changes to my snow map from yesterday.
Total Snow
-Chris
Good afternoon everyone and a Happy New Year to you and yours. Let’s talk about a snow storm shall we? The storm that I mentioned in my previous post has trended westward towards us in the computer guidance and looks to pass near enough to Southern New England to give us a good 12-15 hour blitz of heavy snow and very strong wind gusts.
Current Satellite
5 pm 1/2/18 Water Vapor Image
Over the next day and a half two pieces of atmospheric energy (circled above) will traverse the eastern half of the U.S. and converge just east of Jacksonville, Florida. From there an area of low pressure will form and track north-northeastward along the eastern seaboard and pass close enough to New England for impacts to be felt.
Fast forwarding to Thursday: Snow moves in from south to north during the early morning hours between 4 and 7 am. The morning commute will be affected and likely a mess.
7 am Thursday
7 am Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
The heaviest of the snow falls from 10 am to 7 pm as the low pressure center nears our latitude.
1 pm Thursday
1 pm Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
As we approach the evening hours and the storm reaches our latitude things begin to quiet down and the snow will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast.
7 pm Thursday
7 pm Thursday – Tropical Tidbits
By midnight the storm has wrapped up in southern New England and has begun to wind down in northern New England as the storm pulls up into eastern Canada.
1 am Friday
1 am Friday – Tropical Tidbits
When all is said and done this quick hitting powerhouse will drop upwards of a foot of snow in some spots. The real story with this one could end up being the winds. The strength of this storm system is going to be quite anomalous for our latitude. As the storm center passes by it will have a central pressure rivaling that of strong hurricanes. Winds along the coast and even inland should be quite strong. Here is one computer model’s output for potential wind gusts from the system.
Potential Max Wind Gusts
Wind Gusts – WeatherBELL
IF power outages occur then things could go quickly downhill for those without power. Temperatures following the storm for Friday and the weekend drop to near/below zero again. Sunday morning could approach record cold levels in some spots.
Quick side note about this storm……it is going to be absolutely massive. The entirety of the circulation is going to encompass some 4000 plus miles in diameter taking up the eastern third of the U.S. and most of the western Atlantic Ocean.
850 mb Circulation – Ryan Maue on Twitter
Total Snowfall
When all is said and done here is what I am currently thinking for snowfall totals. I just have this feeling that someone is going to sit under a heavy band and up with 18-20″. I can’t decide if that is near Boston along the rain/snow line or if it is in the Worcester Hills. But it’s out there somewhere.
Storm Total Snowfall – First Attempt 630 pm 1/2/18
Will update as needed tomorrow.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 