Happy Sunday afternoon everyone! Even though we are heading towards the middle of March and Spring is quickly approaching, it appears that Old Man Winter is going to get the last laugh this year. Save for updating a few finer details a major winter storm is going to impact the region Tuesday. Here are my first thoughts on the storm so be ready for a lot of pretty pictures.
Tuesday’s storm will be the result of a piece of atmospheric energy (circled below) dropping southeast across the Great Plains and Midwest. As this energy nears the East Coast it will be pulled northward along the Eastern Seaboard in response to a larger system currently dropping south through central Canada (not even in the picture).
Sunday Afternoon
Sunday Afternoon 500 mb Energy
Monday Afternoon
Monday Afternoon 500 mb Energy
In response to the approaching atmospheric energy, a storm system will begin to organize off the Carolina coastline.
Monday Afternoon Precipitation
Tuesday Afternoon
Tuesday Afternoon 500 mb Energy
By Tuesday afternoon the storm system has fully organized and is spinning just south of New England.
Tuesday Afternoon Precipitation
Let’s take a closer look at the Tuesday-Tuesday Night Timeline. Snow will breakout from southwest to northeast across the region first thing Tuesday morning. Each of the following images show the liquid equivalent of precipitation that has fallen in the previous 6 hours.
8 am Tuesday Morning: We are snowing to the Mass Pike and for those of you in New York City and southwest Connecticut you are in the thick of it.
Tuesday 8 am Precipitation
2 pm Tuesday: All of New England except the northern half of Maine is seeing snow. From Concord, NH south it is snowing to beat the band and blizzard conditions are likely. NYC and surrounding areas are quickly closing in on or surpassing a foot of snow
Tuesday 2 pm Precipitation
Between 2 pm and 8 pm: We’re it now. Snow is falling at rates upwards of 2-3″ per hour or more. According to the image below the Boston area receives an inch or more of liquid in that 6 hour period. At the simple snow to liquid ratio of 10-1 that is 12″+ in that 6 hour stretch. That is insane snow rates we’re talking about there. Now in all reality this is probably slightly overdone, but it does a good job of showing just how quickly the snow is going to pile up.
Around NYC and southern CT the snow is beginning to slow down and taper off.
Tuesday 8 pm Precipitation
Between 2 pm and 8 pm we’ll have to keep an eye on the rain/snow line and see just how far inland it pushes. Right now it looks like the center of the system will pass very near Nantucket and the rain/snow line will progress to approximately the Cape Cod Canal.
Tuesday 8 pm Precipitation Type
In addition to heavy snow, what will eventually allow this to qualify as a Blizzard is the wind gusts. Two images above you can identify the center of the storm by small L and 976 due south of Martha’s Vineyard. A 976 mb low pressure center is very strong and we will notice this by both the heavy snowfall, but also the strong winds and wind gusts.
The image below is a summary of this computer model’s strongest wind gust in the previous 6 hours. For essentially all of the region that is a gust of over 50 mph. Meaning that downed limbs and power lines and lost power are certainly a possibility during this storm.
Tuesday 8 pm Wind Gusts
Heading into the overnight hours things will taper off from southwest to northeast as the storm center moves into the Gulf of Maine.
Wednesday 2 am Precipitation
When all is said and done it appears that the entirety of New England will see at least an inch of liquid precipitation with some locals approaching the 2 inch mark.
Total Storm Precipitation
Summary
In Summary:
- Major winter storm Tuesday-Tuesday Night
- Snow begins around 7 am and ends around midnight.
- Some mixing or rain is possible over the Cape and southeast Massachusetts.
- Winds and wind gusts will be very strong Tuesday afternoon and night.
- Likely at least a foot of snow for everyone.
Snowfall
Total Snowfall
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 