TODAY
Current Visible Satellite
Today is starting out mostly cloudy for much of the northeastern portion of the country except here in central and eastern southern New England where we have mostly clear skies and bright sunshine. The clouds off to our north and west are the result of a frontal system that is draped along the Canadian border. This front is going to slowly drop south and east throughout the day.
Heavy rain will develop during the day today throughout Northern New England and will last through Thursday morning. The rain shield will be slow to drop south and east and will likely not make it into most of Southern New England. However that does not mean that Southern New England will be totally dry. Down here in Southern New England we will have the threat of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong to potentially severe. The Storm Prediction Center has given portions of western and central New England a 5% chance of a severe wind report. On a personal note I have still not experienced a thunderstorm this year. I am having withdrawals.
NAM Total Precip 11 am Thursday
The image above is the forecasted total precipitation from the NAM model through 11 am Thursday morning. As you can see the bulk of the precipitation falls across Northern New England with most locations receiving 1-2″ of rain and some spot locations forecasted to get 3-4″.
As for our temperatures today, across Southern New England our temps will warm through the 80s and reach to either side of 90. Looking at the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) temperatures in portions of SNE reach into the 90s.
HRRR Forecasted Highs courtesy of WeatherBell
Based off the HRRR it appears that we here in SNE need to keep an eye to the sky after about 6 pm as thunderstorms slowly drop south and east. Thunderstorms should persist into the overnight, but should move through by daybreak.
REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND
Thursday: Morning showers move offshore. Chance of a pop up shower or storm across SNE during the afternoon. Afternoon highs in the mid-70s; mid-60s in Maine where the rain hangs on a bit longer.
Friday: Mostly sunny with highs near 80. Definitely a beach day.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with afternoon highs 80-85. Watching for a seabreeze along the South Coast to keep temps a bit cooler.
Sunday: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 70s along the South Coast.
EARLY JULY
The first portion of July is looking warm around here. The image below is the 2 meter temperature anomaly for the period of time from June 30th to July 5th. Here in New England the period of time looks to average about 4 degrees above normal across the Northeast. Meaning that with an average temperature of 80 degrees for the first week of July, we should see temperatures in the mid 80s instead of the low 80s. This doesn’t mean that a few warmer days can not be ruled out. I’m sure that we can get a few smaller scale features to turn an 85 degree day into a low 90s day. Just something to think about going forward.
Day 5-10 2m Temp Anom. GEFS via Tropical Tidbits
At the same time the Mean Sea Level Pressure maps from the Global Ensemble models appear to be advertising below normal pressure levels. Which means that in addition to it being hot to start the month of July, weather looks to be unsettled as well. Likely in the form of pop up showers and thunderstorms.
HURRICANES
Hurricane season is off and running…….well maybe it is crawling. Through almost the first month of hurricane season the Atlantic has been sleeping.
Atlantic Overview from NHC
Nothing is expected at this time and this could be a common theme throughout this season. Currently NOAA has issued an El Nino watch for the possibility of an El Nino developing in the eastern tropical Pacific. They are forecasting a 70% chance that an El Nino develops this summer with the likelihood increasing to 80% for the fall and winter. Late summer and fall is the peak time for Hurricane development across the Atlantic. However, El Nino’s tend to limit the amount of tropical development in the Atlantic Basin.
The Colorado State Department of Atmospheric Sciences has been publishing their seasonal hurricane forecast for years and this year they are predicting below average activity in the Atlantic. As of June 2nd they are forecasting for 10 named storms (average is 12) with 4 hurricanes (average is 6.5) and 1 major hurricane (average is 2).
In agreement with the Colorado State group the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 50% chance of a below normal season and a 40% chance of a near normal season.
But it is always important to remember that is only takes one damaging hurricane to make a seaosn and to ruin lives.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 