The month of October is a transition month where days at the beach are being put into the back of our minds and suddenly the thoughts of shoveling snow are beginning to enter the forefront of our thoughts. As nature transitions from the green colors of life to the reds and oranges of decay so to does our weather transition from the warmth of summer to the cold of winter. October is a month stuck in the middle with shorter days and decreasing odds of leaving the house without a jacket or sweatshirt. And while this may be a doom and gloom outlook with cold weather and winter on the horizon, this helps to bring a smile to my face.
As the month of November nears so to does our first snowfall. Almost like counting down the days until Christmas many of us weather lovers here in New England count down the days until the first flakes are flying. And going forward it looks like those first flakes will be flying sooner rather than later for most. In fact, if things fall the right way then elevated places across the interior of Southern New England might see their first flakes Wednesday night.
In fact the next 15 days look to be slightly below normal temperature wise. This time of the year our daily high temperatures average in the upper 50s. The 7 day forecast below calls for temperatures to be slightly below normal all days except for tomorrow. The following three images are averaged temperature anomalies from the GFS computer model for the three time periods of days 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15.
Temperature anomaly for days 1-5
Tempeture anomaly for days 6-10
Temperature anomaly for days 11-15.
You can see from the images above that the eastern half of the United States looks to be below normal for the three periods above. This is due to the longwave pattern that has established itself over the North American Continent. This pattern is characterized by a large ridge in the west and a large trough in the east. Think large high pressure out west and generally low pressure in the east. What this pattern does is it allows for air from northwestern Canada to invade the eastern half of the country. Putting that half below normal for temperature.
Fortunately it does not appear that there will be many chances of precipitation during this period of colder weather. Which is good because although the temperatures are below normal, they are not exactly cold enough for sustained snow fall. Meaning that if we were to get a storm it would likely be a cold, raw rain event. Which no one ever likes.
Although I am not the biggest fan of making seasonal forecasts as it is my opinion that making the forecast for three days from now is tough enough, why try making a forecast for three months from now. But if I were to take a stab at this winters forecast, the early hints are showing a below normal winter temperature wise with possibly an above average winter precipitation wise. Which is great for me as I am a big fan of cold and snow.
But back to the short term. A cold front looks to push through the region Tuesday afternoon bringing showers to Northern New England. Wednesday afternoon a wave of low pressure should form along this cold front and track off the East Coast. Depending on how close this low pressure center passes to Southern New England will determine if locals will experience rain fall Wednesday evening. As it stands right now it looks like places east of Worcester have the highest probability of seeing some rain Wednesday evening. After that our chances for rain look slim, but temperatures will be cool with highs in the low 50s.
7 Day Forecast
Tuesday: Showers likely in Northern New England with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday: Storm passes south of Southern New England. Chance of rain increases the further south and east one lives. Highs around 55.
Thursday: Mostly sunny with highs around 50.
Friday: Partly cloudy with highs near 50.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with highs near 50.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs around 55.
Monday: Partly cloudy with highs 50-55.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 