So we meteorologists have been keeping this a secret for the last couple of days, but one of our computer models has been advertising a major snow storm for New England. The model that has been doing this is the European Model; which statistically speaking is our most accurate model. For the last couple of days, the Euro was all by itself in thinking a major storm was coming. But overnight the American model; the GFS, trended toward the European. And finally this morning came in with an almost exact match to the Euro.
So it time to show everyone what the Euro has been showing me. This morning’s run of the Euro is the most extreme run we have seen. So I will show you the important images that you need to see. Outlining what the worst (or best) possible outcome is.
Each image that follows will have the description of what it means above it.
First image is the surface reflection of what our storm could look like at 1 pm on Friday. The green shading is potential precipitation in inches for the previous 6 hours. The dark blue shading is .5″. Or potentially 5 inches of snow in 6 hours.
The next image is what our storm could look like at 7 pm Friday Evening.
Our possible storm at 1 am Saturday morning. The light blue over eastern Mass is 1.25″ of precip or more in 6 hours…….12″+!!!!
Our storm at 7 am Saturday. Still going strong.
Storm at 1 pm Saturday. Finally moving away.
Total liquid that falls out of sky based on the European model. Majority of Eastern Mass sees over 3″ of liquid…….or possibly over 30″ of snow.
The next set of images is the amount of snow that falls in the previous 6 hours based on the model and a 10 to 1 ratio.
First image is from 1 pm Friday. Storm just moving in.
7 pm Friday night. Storm starting to crank. 1″ per hour snows.
1 am Saturday. Full on blizzard. 2″ per hour snows. Possibly over 12″ in 6 hours. Insane!
7 am Saturday. Storm still going. Beginning to pull away.
1 pm Saturday. Storm pulling away.
Finally the total amount of snow for entire storm. Based on 10 to 1 ratio. 24″+ for most with 30″+ for a good chunk. Would be one for the record books.
Reminder that this is most likely the most extreme scenario we could possibly see……..I think. We are still 3 days away so a lot will change, but I just wanted to show everyone what I have been seeing for the last two days.
Fitting that the anniversary of the Blizzard of ’78 is tomorrow. More to come tomorrow as things become more clear.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 