As most of you probably know by now, we meteorologists have been talking about the potential storms that we have coming for the Sunday through Wednesday time frame. It seems as if we have been talking about this period for over a week now. Well the period of interest is almost upon us and my confidence in what is going to occur has increased to the point where I can finally write this blog.
Saturday will turn out to be a nice day, as will most of Sunday, but during the afternoon on Sunday we will see the precipitation from our first storm begin to move into our region. Yes, I said first storm because in reality there will be a couple of systems during this short period. Actually it might be 3, but we will call it two.
During the afternoon on Sunday precipitation will begin to move in. Places south of the pike will most definitely be too warm for snow, but those north of it have a chance to see some flakes. Sadly though we just won’t be able to hang onto the cold air and eventually the snow will turn to rain for most. Storm number 1 will last overnight Sunday where the snow/rain could be heavy at times. During the day on Monday the precipitation (should be rain by this time) will begin to let up in intensity and will eventually become more showery in nature.
Meanwhile storm number two will be taking shape across the Southeastern portions of the country. The storm will track up to our west towards western New York. Putting us on the warm side of the storm, meaning that we are in store for rain, and there could be a lot of it.
Of course everything, especially with storm number 2 is subject to change. But right now I am fairly confident in storm number 1 and somewhat confident in storm number 2.
For a visual overview of the forecast and the evolution of what is going to unfold, see the images below; including a snowfall forecast map for storm number 1 and a potential precipitation type map for storm number 2.
Above is the forecast track for storm number 1. Saturday morning the storm will be somewhere near northwest Kansas and by Sunday night the system will be dying in the Great Lakes. When this happens a new storm will take shape along Long Island and will move out to sea.
Above is the forecasted precipitation types for storm number 1. Assuming the temperature profile works as I think. Of course a change in temperature by only a degree or two and the lines above could move drastically.
Finally my snowfall map for storm number 1 as I see it right now. Not expecting any dramatic changes maybe just a slight movement in the positioning of the different categories is all.
What I believe to be the track of storm number 2. After traversing up the Appalachian Trail the storm will begin to die and lose momentum in western New York, followed by redevelopment over southern New England.
What I expect the precipitation type to be for storm number two overnight Monday and during the day Tuesday. Rainfall totals could possible exceed an inch or more. While places in northern New England, meaning ski country could be in store for a good dumping of snow.
7 Day Forecast
Tonight: Partly cloudy with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s. Northwest wind 0-5 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy skies with afternoon highs in the upper 30s. North wind 0-5 mph.
Sunday: Increasing clouds during very early morning hours becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. Precipitation moves in during the afternoon. Begins as rain south and snow north. See maps above for potential accumulations. East wind 10-15 mph.
Monday: Light rain to begin the day. Rain should become more showery in nature around midday. Cloudy with highs around 40. East-northeast wind 5-10 mph. Gustier along the coastline.
Tuesday: Basically a terrible day. Cold and rainy. Highs in the low 40s in central New England, mid to upper 40s in southern New England; possible a 50 in extreme southern New England.
Wednesday: Still mostly cloudy as we struggle to kick storm away to east. Can not rule out the chance of a shower or brief downpour especially the further north and east you get in New England. Afternoon highs in the upper 30s to around 40.
Thursday: Increasing clouds during the afternoon ahead of our next system. Highs in the low 40s.
Friday: Our next system arrives sometime during the Friday time frame. WAY too early to decide rain or snow. Just let it be known that the chance is there. Highs in the mid 30s.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 