After Saturday Nights snowfall all towns in New England are snow covered for the first time in 2 years. Nice to have things back in order. That is if you happen to like snow like I do.
As for what is coming up in the world of weather…..nothing exciting. The jet streams have dropped to our south for a while and this will keep the storm track to our south as well. But what this does do is open up a free flow of air from Canada into our region. And boy will it be cold at times.
Overnight lows will consistently be in the teens for Southern New England and dropping as low as single digits for Northern New England.
The cold is all I have to talk about so I am going to wrap up this forecast. I do not have a single chance of precipitation in the forecast for the next 7 days.
Wake me up in a week!
7 DAY FORECAST
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with overnight lows in the upper 20s. Southwest winds 10-15 mph.
Tuesday: Scattered clouds. Highs in the low 30s. West wind 15-20 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 20s. West-northwest wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs around 25. West-southwest wind 5-10 mph.
Friday: Clear. Highs around 25.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs in the low 30s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 30.
Monday: Warm!!! Highs around 40.
-Chris
My apologies for not being as up to date with the previous system as I should have been. As fate would have it, I went home for the Holiday’s confident in an all rain forecast for Southern New England. Well while I was home and away from the computer guidance, the system decided to trend colder in the last 36 hours before the event. Which is why most of us started as snow before transitioning to rain. Eventually we all ended as snow, which is why the ground is covered with a nice coat of white right now.
Not much of a break for us between systems. The next one will be in here late Saturday afternoon and overnight. This one however looks to take a more Southerly track; just outside of the 40/70 benchmark. The 40/70 benchmark is 40 N by 70 W in latitude and longitude and happens to be a location where some of our bigger snow storms have tracked.
With this more Southerly track, we can expect this system to bring snow and snow only. Except for places on the Cape, where temperatures will go above freezing for a time and allow for a mix to occur.
We will have to watch this one closely because a 50 mile deviation in track would mean that snow totals either need to be raised significantly or lowered significantly. My snow map is posted below and I hold the right to change it as needed. Though I feel fairly confident in it right now.
What I am expecting from this system. A “jackpot” region of Northwestern CT, Northern RI, Northern Bristol County as well as Northwestern Plymouth County in MA.
Following this system, it looks like we will take a break from the active weather pattern we are in. But the alternative is that it will be bitterly cold at times for all of New England. Our coldest temperatures in a while are on their way for most of next week. Nighttime lows will fall as low as 10 in spots with highs only reaching the low 20s at times.
7 DAY FORECAST
Tonight: Lows around 20. Partly cloudy skies with very light winds.
Saturday: Partly cloudy to start; becoming overcast. Light snow begins falling around 3 pm and continues through the night. Highs in the mid 30s. See map above for snow totals.
Sunday: Snow ends some time around dawn. Clouds depart with skies becoming partly cloudy and eventually clear. Winds will begin to gust out of the northwest as high as 30 mph as the low pressure explodes to our east. Afternoon highs near 30.
Monday: Cold. Highs in the upper 20s with partly cloudy skies and west winds around 10 mph.
Tuesday: Bitterly cold across the North Country as highs only reach into the teens. Near 30 south.
Wednesday: Colder still as the average high across New England will be near 25.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with highs around 25.
Friday: Possibly the coldest day of the week with highs in the low 20s.
-Chris
Yesterday’s rain/wind storm was pretty cool huh? Rain all morning long, heavy at times with gusty winds bringing down some tree limbs; then all of a sudden it stopped and the sun broke through the clouds and the winds died down. Well, at least I thought it was cool.
Most of us a dry today except for the western slopes of the Berkshires and Green Mountains as the upslope snow machine is on. As the northwest wind runs into the mountains, the air is forced to rise. When the air rises it cools and when the air reaches it’s saturation temperature, the water vapor in the air condenses and falls to the ground as snow. And in some locations, quite a bit of it.
But most of us don’t have to worry about that. I can’t rule out a random snow shower or flurry getting a little adventurous and letting some flakes fly in other regions.
Actually this weekend should be quite nice. Now storms (outside of the snow in the mountains) and temperatures aren’t all that bad. Highs near 40 for this time of year are pretty good.
But the question everyone is asking me has been, “What are the chances of a White Christmas?” There is just something about snow on Christmas that seems to make the Holiday a little more enjoyable. And my response for the last few days has been, “The chances are small, but they aren’t zero.”
Well as luck would have it, our chances of a white Christmas in Southern New England have risen significantly. So much so that I think most of us will wake up to some snow flying on Christmas morning. The only problem that some might encounter is the chance of a mix or change to rain in the far southeastern portions of Southern New England. Let’s say people to the south and east of Route 24 might have to deal with a change over. Of course, the smallest variations in track of precipitation intensity and things could change.
Here is just one depiction of what the radar could look like at 7 AM Christmas morning. This actually might be the least impressive one I could have chosen.
The potential snows for Christmas look as if they will begin a couple hours either side of Midnight and last until either side of noon. Generally it appears that most of Southern New England could be in for a nice 2-4″ snowfall with a few spot amounts of 5″ possible.
We get a break Wednesday morning, then we have another system primed to impact our region Wednesday evening just in time for the evening commute possibly. This system will be much larger and pack more of a punch. Right now it is too difficult to tell if we will be dealing with rain or snow. But the trend has been towards the colder scenario.
And would you believe it, but there are hints of another system sometime for the following Sunday. That is over a week away and a lot can/will change.
7 DAY FORECAST
Today: Partly to mostly cloud skies. Upslope snows in the mountains of Western New England. Random flurries are possible. Highs near 40.
Tonight: Pertly cloudy with lows in the lower 20s. Snow likely to continue in Western New England.
Sunday: Western New England snows should begin to lessen. Rest of New England is dry with highs 35-40.
Monday: Increasing clouds during the afternoon. The day should have the “look” and “feel” of snow about it. Highs 35-40.
Tuesday: Light snows over spread the region around Midnight and last until around noon. A few inches of snow are possible. Highs in the low 30s.
Wednesday: Dry to start, but skies will be mostly cloudy ahead of our next system that will make it’s entrance around the evening commute. Highs around 30.
Thursday: Stormy to start. Not sure if it will be rain or snow. Either scenario is possible. Storm exits late afternoon. Highs in the low 30s.
Friday: Partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 30s.
-Chris
Boy after a rather quite November and start to December things have changed huh? We have entered into a rather active period with 3 storms within a short time frame. Sunday night into Monday delivered a coating of snow and ice to some (and a lot of snow to some up north). But that was followed by a good bit of rain last night to wash it all away. Snow has continued in Maine where totals are reaching into the 2 to 3 feet range.
Sadly we do not have any big snow storms in the forecast, the best I can muster up is the chance of snow showers or squalls Friday night and Saturday.
Our next system heads our way early Friday morning as a low pressure center tracks to our west towards the Great Lakes. This again puts us on the warm side of the system meaning that we will be rain. Northern Maine however may be able to hold onto some cold air giving them another round of snow that could add up to over another foot. Safe to say most of Maine will see a white Christmas.
Christmas itself looks rather chilly as temperatures drop on the backside of our Friday system giving way to a cold start of next week.
Looking far out in time, our next big chance for a storm comes during the 26th/27th time frame. Hopefully this one will be able to keep the cold air locked in and bring us snow.
7 DAY FORECAST
Wednesday: Continued rain and snow in the state of Maine. Isolated showers for the rest of New England. Highs around 40. Northwest wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday: Mostly dry day with scattered clouds. Highs in the low to mid 40s. Northeast wind 5-10 mph.
Friday: Absolute washout. Rain begins early morning around dawn. Most locations can expect an inch or more of rain. Northern Maine can expect possibly another foot of snow. Heaviest rain is during the afternoon in Southern New England. Highs in the upper 40s. South winds 10-15 mph.
Saturday: Cold air rushes in from the northwest. Scattered snow showers with highs around 35.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs around 30.
Monday: Coldest day of the week. Highs in the teens for Northern New England; near 30 south.
Tuesday: Cold to start. Morning lows below 0 for most of Northern New England; teens south. Afternoon highs near 30.
-Chris
As most of you probably know by now, we meteorologists have been talking about the potential storms that we have coming for the Sunday through Wednesday time frame. It seems as if we have been talking about this period for over a week now. Well the period of interest is almost upon us and my confidence in what is going to occur has increased to the point where I can finally write this blog.
Saturday will turn out to be a nice day, as will most of Sunday, but during the afternoon on Sunday we will see the precipitation from our first storm begin to move into our region. Yes, I said first storm because in reality there will be a couple of systems during this short period. Actually it might be 3, but we will call it two.
During the afternoon on Sunday precipitation will begin to move in. Places south of the pike will most definitely be too warm for snow, but those north of it have a chance to see some flakes. Sadly though we just won’t be able to hang onto the cold air and eventually the snow will turn to rain for most. Storm number 1 will last overnight Sunday where the snow/rain could be heavy at times. During the day on Monday the precipitation (should be rain by this time) will begin to let up in intensity and will eventually become more showery in nature.
Meanwhile storm number two will be taking shape across the Southeastern portions of the country. The storm will track up to our west towards western New York. Putting us on the warm side of the storm, meaning that we are in store for rain, and there could be a lot of it.
Of course everything, especially with storm number 2 is subject to change. But right now I am fairly confident in storm number 1 and somewhat confident in storm number 2.
For a visual overview of the forecast and the evolution of what is going to unfold, see the images below; including a snowfall forecast map for storm number 1 and a potential precipitation type map for storm number 2.
Above is the forecast track for storm number 1. Saturday morning the storm will be somewhere near northwest Kansas and by Sunday night the system will be dying in the Great Lakes. When this happens a new storm will take shape along Long Island and will move out to sea.
Above is the forecasted precipitation types for storm number 1. Assuming the temperature profile works as I think. Of course a change in temperature by only a degree or two and the lines above could move drastically.
Finally my snowfall map for storm number 1 as I see it right now. Not expecting any dramatic changes maybe just a slight movement in the positioning of the different categories is all.
What I believe to be the track of storm number 2. After traversing up the Appalachian Trail the storm will begin to die and lose momentum in western New York, followed by redevelopment over southern New England.
What I expect the precipitation type to be for storm number two overnight Monday and during the day Tuesday. Rainfall totals could possible exceed an inch or more. While places in northern New England, meaning ski country could be in store for a good dumping of snow.
7 Day Forecast
Tonight: Partly cloudy with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s. Northwest wind 0-5 mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy skies with afternoon highs in the upper 30s. North wind 0-5 mph.
Sunday: Increasing clouds during very early morning hours becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s. Precipitation moves in during the afternoon. Begins as rain south and snow north. See maps above for potential accumulations. East wind 10-15 mph.
Monday: Light rain to begin the day. Rain should become more showery in nature around midday. Cloudy with highs around 40. East-northeast wind 5-10 mph. Gustier along the coastline.
Tuesday: Basically a terrible day. Cold and rainy. Highs in the low 40s in central New England, mid to upper 40s in southern New England; possible a 50 in extreme southern New England.
Wednesday: Still mostly cloudy as we struggle to kick storm away to east. Can not rule out the chance of a shower or brief downpour especially the further north and east you get in New England. Afternoon highs in the upper 30s to around 40.
Thursday: Increasing clouds during the afternoon ahead of our next system. Highs in the low 40s.
Friday: Our next system arrives sometime during the Friday time frame. WAY too early to decide rain or snow. Just let it be known that the chance is there. Highs in the mid 30s.
-Chris
If I had to describe the next 5 days or so in one word I think I would choose the word “messy”. The next 5 days are filled with the chance of rain and maybe a little snow. The longest stretch of “dry” weather we should see will come during the day on Sunday, but that will end quickly as rain will again move in Sunday night.
Why do I describe it as messy though? Below is an image of vorticity from the ECMWF model. For those of you without the degree in Meteorology, simply think of vorticity as energy. And without making things too complicated, in general where you have energy, you have a chance of precipitation. Looking at the image below, all of the different colors from light blue to yellows to reds and whites are energy in the atmosphere. As you can see there are little pieces of energy everywhere and then there is the big stripe across the middle of the country. The stripe across the middle of the country is a strong cold front, but all the other areas are the pieces of energy that will continue to give us chances of rain. And since all these other areas remain on their own and can not congeal into one system, this is why I describe it as messy.
In summary, chance of rain for the next 5 days. Then a nice break it appears Wednesday through Saturday………with hints of a potential storm coming for sometime next weekend. But that is very far off and there are only hints of a storm. Have a good weekend.
7 DAY FORECAST
Today: Mostly cloudy. Showers move in from the west during the afternoon. Highs in the low 40s. South wind 0-5 mph.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower overnight. Lows 35-40. Southwest wind 0-5 mph.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Possibly a more steady rain along the south coast. Highs around 45. Variable winds 0-5 mph.
Sunday: Better of the two weekend days. Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s. Increasing clouds during the late afternoon and evening hours. This will bring a chance of rain overnight. North wind 5-10 mph.
Monday: Rain during the morning hours, steady at times. Then we get a little break during the mid-morning and afternoon hours as we will only have a chance of a shower during this time. Then during the evening hours and into the overnight, a cold front will bring a second round of steadier rain to our area. Afternoon highs in the mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Light rain will move in during the afternoon and continue into the overnight where it may end in the form of some light snow. Highs in the upper 30s to near 40.
Wednesday: Finally a day without the mention of rain. High pressure has moved in and will be in control for the rest of the work week. Highs in the upper 30s.
Thursday & Friday: Partly cloudy with highs in the low 40s.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 