After the last two weeks brought a Hurricane and Nor’easter to New England, better days do lie ahead. The strong blocking pattern in the atmosphere that allowed for Hurricane Sandy and the nor’easter to impact New England has finally broken down allowing for a more typical pattern to take hold for the coming week.
Speaking of the nor’easter, many of us across the region saw our first snowfall of the season and in many places the storm overproduced in terms of the amount of snow that fell. For a great explanation for why many forecasts were incorrect, the image below is from the National Weather Service in Taunton.
The feature that the NWS highlights is the Coastal Front. It is a mesoscale feature that is found in a lot of our New England winter storms. Simply put it can be thought of as the all important rain/snow line. It is the battleground between cold air to the northwest and warm air to the southeast. To the northwest of this coastal front feature, the area of highest precipitation is often found. Which gives credence to the reasoning behind the area of 4-6″ of snow fell just to the northeast of the city of Providence.
This forecasting mistake is a perfect example for why I want to study the Coastal Front with my thesis research. I want to investigate the dynamics of this feature and try to devise a way to more accurately forecast it as a way to create more accurate snowfall total maps.
But for now this nor’easter and snowfall are behind us. Looking forward we have much warmer and more enjoyable weather for those who like “boring” weather.
As our last storm moves away from us our general wind direction will become more westerly and eventually southwesterly in nature. Allowing for warmer air to make its way into our region as we bask in the sunshine provided by a ridge of high pressure. Temperatures will reach there peak on Monday around 65 degrees. And even after a cold front moves through overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, temperatures won’t drop off too badly and will remain in the upper 40s to near 50.
7 Day Forecast
Friday Night: Mostly clear and cool. Great night for star gazing. Lows in the lower 30s.
Saturday: Increasing afternoon clouds with highs around 50.
Sunday: Yesterday’s increasing clouds bring the chance of showers or snow showers to Central and Northern NH & VT. Highs in the upper 50s.
Monday: Isolated clouds. Warm. Afternoon highs near 65. Couldn’t have asked for a better day to have off from school or work.
Tuesday: Chance of rain begins around dawn ahead of an approaching cold front. Daytime highs 50-55.
Wednesday: Rain exits before dawn as cold front passes through the region. Highs near 50.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-50.
Have a good weekend.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 