Now that Hurricane Sandy is behind us, it is time to look ahead. And it isn’t long until the next storm system is headed our way. The same pattern that allowed Sandy to make her way up the coast is still in place and this time it will spawn a nor’easter for the middle and second half of next week. As it stands right now this one looks like potentially more than our run of the mill nor’easter; this one could be quite strong. Reason being is that the two branches of the jet stream; the polar and subtropical branches, look to come together and phase off the East Coast. It is when this phasing occurs that we get our strongest nor’easters.
To illustrate what I mean by the two separate jet streams phasing together I have included the two following images. The first image is when the two jets are separate. I have marked the area of interest in the subtropical jet with a 1 and the area of interest in the polar jet as a 2. The second image is after the phasing process has occurred. There is no longer 2 separate jets, but 1 combined jet off the East Coast; meaning that there is one formidable storm there as well.
Right now it appears that rain could begin falling as early as supper time on Wednesday evening. This system is by no means going to be a quick mover. The blocking that caused Sandy make a quick left hook is still in place; meaning that the storms escape root to the northeast is going to be impeded. It looks like we may not be able to completely wash ourselves of this system until sometime Friday afternoon.
By Thursday morning, we will be completely engulfed by the effects of this nor’easter. The image below is for 7 am on Thursday from the ECMWF model.
The center of low pressure is located off the Jersey Coast (meaning more bad news for the already battered New Jersey beaches) and we here in southern New England will be dealing with a rather cold and windy rain. As the storm slowly moves to the northeast, it should be able to draw in some colder air from Canada and some of the higher terrains could see some snow out of this one. It doesn’t look like those of us below a few thousand feet will see any flakes, but if this changes I’ll keep you informed.
Another piece of this storm that isn’t what we want to hear is that the winds and wind gusts that are possible are quite strong. Right now it looks like winds could be as high as 25-30 mph, but with gusts as high as 60 mph possibly. Not what we want to hear after what we went through last week.
Below is my crudely drawn depiction of what I think is going to happen. The big L that I have drawn if for 7 am on Tuesday. The first long arrow up the coast is the storms track through 7 am Thursday. After that, the storm should slowly drift away from us, in a general east or northeast manner. Regions to the east of the green line are where places should expect some form of precipitation.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 