So my parade of forecasts that include nothing but great weather are over. You may have noticed, but it is raining out today. And it looks as if we will not be able to take the chance of rain out of the forecast for maybe the next 7-10 days or so. To illustrate this point, the image above shows 500 mb Heights and Absolute Vorticity. Simple put, it is showing pieces of energy in the upper atmosphere that drive almost all weather events. This image is a forecast from one of our computer guidance products and is for Friday morning at 8 am. Today’s rain is being caused by the green and yellow shaded areas over Southern New England in the image above.
The weekend and early next week’s player in the weather is the 1st big L to our northwest in Canada. This system is reaching the end of it’s life stage and is becoming what is known as a cut-off area of low pressure. When a storm becomes cut-off it turns into a large system that doesn’t move all that much. Leaving the region it impacts with unsettled weather for a few days until something comes and gives it a push to get rid of it. This isn’t to say that it will rain from now through Tuesday; actually most of the time will be relatively dry, but it does give us the chance of rain at basically anytime between now and Tuesday.
Next up on our parade of systems is the area outlined in blue over Arizona and New Mexico. This piece of energy was once Hurricane Miriam in the Eastern Pacific. Miriam moved over colder waters and disapated, but her energy moved onshore and will become our next nuissance towards mid week. Eventually developing into an area of low pressure that will move across the Ohio River Valley and over our heads. Bringing with it the constant chance of showers and rain.
Finally towards the end of next week and next weekend, another system will be dropping out of Canada and moving through the Great Lakes. This system is currently off of the image above; somewhere southwest of Alaska over the Pacific. This system is too far out there to attempt to forecast finer details.
7 Day Forecast
Tonight: Pretty Miserable to put it bluntly. Mist, rain and occasional downpours continue into the night. Overnight lows in the upper 50s. Winds becoming east at 10-15 mph.
Saturday: Misty and rainy to start; gradual clearing throughout the day. Chance of a shower in the afternoon. Highs 60-65.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a scattered shower. Lows around 55.
Sunday: Cloudy with the chance of a shower. Highs 60-65.
Monday: Chance of a shower. Highs around 65.
Tuesday: Chance of an isolated shower late. Highs around 65.
Wednesday: Chance of an isolated shower. Highs in the low 70s.
Thursday: Scattered showers. Highs in the low 70s.
Tropics
Hurricane Nadine: One lonely Tropical System way out in the Eastern Atlantic which could be one for the record books. Nadine has been classified as a Tropical System for over 20 days now and she has a chance to be one of the longest lived storms in history. She formed from an easterly wave that exited off the African Coast. She then quickly turned towards the north and impacted the Azores Islands. After this, she decided to turn back to the south and is in the process of completing a loop in her path. All the while maintaining Tropical Storm strength and doing all of this very slowly. As for what is going to happen to Nadine, guidance suggests that she will continue her drift to the north only to possibly repeat the loop that she is currently in. Only instead of looping clockwise, she might do it counterclockwise. But eventually she will be picked up and could possibly impact the Azores Islands again. As for what her path has looked like, see below.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 