From the Storm Prediction Center: they have upped our chances of severe thunderstorms from almost nothing to slight which you can see includes almost all of New England and most of the Mid-Atlantic States.

Also from the Storm Prediction Center this is the Day 2 Probabilistic Forecast.  Which shows that a good chunk of Western Central and Southern New England is included a region of 30% hatched probability.  While the rest of us lie in the 15 % probability region.

Finally, the below text is from the discussion that the Storm Prediction Center puts out with their individual day forecasts.  Below they highlight what I mentioned yesterday; that the warm temperatures coupled with such high dew points will make for a fairly unstable environment.  Add in the approaching Cold Front and this gives you the chance of thunderstorms.  Add in some of the more complicated dynamics that I will save you from and we get the chance of severe weather.

…ERN PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY…MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES…

A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS SATURDAY
MORNING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. RICH GULF
MOISTURE /UPPER 60S TO 70F DEWPOINTS/ NOW RESIDING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SRN PORTIONS OF NERN STATES WILL ADVECT THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW.
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER…BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER…CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF PRE-EXISTING PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WARM
SECTOR DESTABILIZES. DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW WITH LARGE
HODOGRAPHS AND 40+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. DAMAGING WIND AND MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

As for what I am currently thinking, my thoughts from yesterday about the Cold Front’s position and timing have not changed.  I feel as if the Cold Front will be too far to our west for us to be impacted by the storms when they are at their peak intensity.  We will however be impacted by the leftovers from New York State as they move east with the Cold Front.  This isn’t too say that the storms that impact us overnight won’t be capable of being stronger, I am just saying that I feel as if the greatest chance of severe weather is to our west; simply because regions to our west will be impacted by these storms with the aid of the sun.  By the time that they make it to our neck of the woods, the sun will have set and the atmosphere will have begun to stabilize.

However, as with any weather event, unforeseen activity is possible and likely.  It would not be a surprise if a storm or two were able to form out ahead of the main line of convection.  If this does happen, and a few storms can form in New England before the arrival of the Cold Front and before the loss of daytime heating, then those storms will have the capability to be quite strong.  Again, these few rogue storms are only a possibility and are not as certain as the storms that will effect places to our west.

-Chris


Posted by in Uncategorized