In my last post, I went in-depth about the possibility of an area of low pressure impacting the Cape this morning. Well I just happen to be down the Cape this weekend and when I woke up it was to bright sunny skies and calm conditions. Looking into what happened, it all comes down to the individual mesoscale features. By mesoscale I am referring to phenomena that are bigger than individual storm cells, but smaller than synoptic features like fronts and large areas of High or Low pressure. The models have handled the timing and position of synoptic features very well. They are struggling to forecast mesoscale events (like the small area of low pressure I detailed).
The low pressure that I showed to impact the Cape and Islands turned out to be a batch of thunderstorms that stayed out over the ocean. The storms were also about 12 hours ahead of schedule. This 12 hours ahead of schedule has been a trend recently with weather phenomena in the Northeast. You may remember back 2 Friday’s ago; when we were under a tornado watch because off a system that had the appearance of a tropical system and an “eye-like” feature (The technical name for this event is: Mesoscale Convective Vortex). Well this event was forecasted (not to this intensity though), but it occurred roughly 12 hours ahead of schedule.
Hopefully our computer guidance models will be able to figure out the timing issues that they are experiencing and going forward our(my) forecasts will be improved.
LOOKING AHEAD:
Today will feature increasing clouds ahead of a system that is impacting the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. It should skirt just south-east of Southern New England; but a stray shower can not be ruled out across the Cape.
Looking ahead our week looks great. Daytime highs should be around 80 for each day this week. The only real chance of rain comes our way Monday Night and Early Tuesday Morning. And this is only a chance and only a problem for places south and east in Southern New England.
-Chris
Chris Hampton Weather 