Tomorrow is going to be HOT!!! But I am inclined to disagree with those who are throwing out the 100 degree number. The reason that people are suddenly forecasting highs off 99 and 100 is because 1 of the computer models (the NAM) is suddenly putting out 100 degree readings for tomorrow afternoon. That is all well and good, but what about the other 10 or so pieces of computer guidance. Especially the ensemble guidance (which I will go into detail in a separate post).
Taking into account the other pieces of computer guidance and not completely dismissing them as it seems many are doing, I calculate a generally averaged temperature of 92. Meaning that some places will be warmer and some places will be cooler. Which means that if someone were to ask me what tomorrow’s temperatures were going to be I would probably say 90-95. Sure some places that are climatologically warmer such as Nashua or Bedford might be able to reach 96 or 97, but I honestly don’t think that 100 is going to happen.
Besides tomorrow’s heat, there is a chance of strong to severe storms in Northern New England out ahead of the cold front that will eventually bring us some much-needed relief from all the heat and humidity. The cold front will be approaching the US/Canada border by the evening hours, allowing for a lot of day time heating and for the atmosphere to destabilize. The main threat is for strong winds and large hail.
7 Day Forecast
Tonight: Hot and HUMID. Lows around 70.
Tomorrow: Hot. Highs in the mid 90s. Chance of strong storms in Northern New England.
Tomorrow Night: Storms in Northern New England sag south and eventually dissipate. Lows in the mid 70s. Very uncomfortable.
Wednesday: Feel that my forecast from yesterday still holds. Cold front will traverse its way through New England. For Northern New England, it will be a very pleasant day. For Southern New England, the front will spark off showers and storms (those that fire south of the Mass Pike in the afternoon could possibly be strong). Highs will push 90 for the southern half of Southern New England. 85 for the northern half of SNE. and the mid 70s for Northern New England.
Thursday through Saturday: Ahhhhhhh!!! Return of comfortable temperatures. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80. No precipitation in sight. High pressure in control.
Sunday: Might be the first day with the return of the warmth. Highs in the upper 80s.
-Chris
Yes the main reason for me creating this page was to create a place where I can publish my forecasts and to create an archive so that I will be able to review them in the future, but another big reason for me creating this page was so that I could create what I call my “Computer Guidance” page. (Found here) What it is is a page with a total of 102 computer links(guaranteed to increase) to various websites that all contribute something useful to either: making a forecast, analyzing the current conditions or looking back upon past events. Amazingly all 102 websites do serve a purpose(some serving many) and are all very useful and handy to use.
The reason for creating this page was simple: I wanted to give everyone an opportunity to find and utilize the many sources that I find useful when looking at and forecasting the weather. And my bookmarks tab couldn’t handle the volume of links that I was trying to save to it.
So for those of you reading who have no idea what any of the links possibly mean, and that is the majority of you, here are a few of the ones that I find simple and easy to use:
Southern New England Current Temperature Map Great for seeing what current temperatures are like around Southern New England
Continental United States Wind Map Basically just because it is cool to look at. But really what it does is give me an insight into where the surface features are located across the U.S.
College of Dupage Satellite and Radar Page My favorite site for viewing Satellite and Radar images and loops. Just follow the link, click on “1 km products”, choose visible or radar, then click the site you want to view. (click the one in southern Vermont) Then if you want to view a loop, at the top of the image are “visible image” and “radar mosaic”. Hover your mouse over them and a drop down box will appear, then simply choose how long of a loop you want to see.
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Not my favorite site, but it is definitely the most user friendly. A simple way to look at and understand what is going on with our national weather. Simply click on which of the thumbnails you want to view and I’m sure you can figure it out from there.
After that, all of the links in some form or another are either a forecasting tool or a tool to analyze past events. Eventually I will go into further detail on what each link is useful for. Just need to figure out what is the best way to do that as there are so many of them.
-Chris
Been kinda hot out lately huh? Logan Airport went on to reach a high of 91 today. We will have to suffer for another couple of days it appears. Relief will come in the form of a cold front on Wednesday. Tough part of the forecast is the timing of the front as it approaches and traverses through New England.
Reason that I say this is as the cold front moves through the region, there will be a shift in wind direction. Out ahead of the front the primary wind direction is from the southwest, which as you may be able to guess is a warm wind. Behind the front, the wind will shift around to out of the northwest, which relatively speaking isn’t a “cold” wind direction this time of year, but it is a relatively cooler and drier wind direction. Therefore, each locals high temperature on Wednesday will be determined by the time that the front crosses your particular location. Simply put, the later in the day that the front passes through your town, the warmer your Wednesday is going to be. The sooner it passes through your town, then the sooner the relief and cool air come in.
Right now it looks as if the cold front should be located along the MA/NH border by Wednesday morning. Meaning that all of Northern New England should be in for a beautiful day. Southern New England however looks to be in for a day that starts off warm and muggy. As the cold front sags south across the region, showers and storms should begin to break out ahead of the front. As early as late morning for those places north of the Mass Pike. Right now places south of the Mass Pike look to have the best chance at seeing some heavier precipitation. By the afternoon, the front should have made it’s way to along the Mass Pike and finally by LATE evening(more than likely some point overnight) it will have traversed through all of Southern New England.
What does this do for our temperature forecast though? All of Northern New England should be in the upper 70s to around 80. Places north of the Mass Pike should warm up into the low to mid 80s and then our warming will be shut off after the front goes through. Places south of the Pike though, will be able to warm up into the upper 80s and possibly to around 90. It is these places though that also have the best chance at seeing a stronger storm possibly.
After the front goes through, we are in for a real treat. High pressure looks to center itself to our northwest in Central Quebec. Meaning that our general flow will be out of the northwest, a cooler and drier wind than we have had. So that should be nice.
Again as is the truth with every forecast, things are subject to change. But right now this is how our near-term forecast shapes up.
7-Day Forecast
Tonight: Warm. Showers throughout the night. Possibly some embedded downpours. Low around 70. Sticky feel to the air. Definitely an AC type of a night. Southwest winds at 0-5 mph.
Tomorrow: Showers ending by morning commute. Not as warm as today, but highs should still be in the upper 80s. There is a chance for showers in Northern New England; mainly in the state of Maine. West-northwest wind 0-10 mph.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear skies, but still humid. Lows around 70. Mostly calm winds.
Tuesday: Hot. Highs around 90. Southwest wind at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday: Tough forecast. All depends on the timing of the Cold Front approaching from the Northwest. That being said, highs in the low 80s north, upper 80s to around 90 south. Showers and storms out ahead of the front. See above for finer details.
Thursday: Cooler. Highs in the upper 70s. Nice comfortable weather.
Friday: Looks like a repeat of Thursday. Highs in the upper 70s.
Next Weekend: Looks great as of right this instance with high pressure in control. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tropics:
All is quiet in the Atlantic, but there is a Hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. His name is Fabio and he is no threat to land. Right now Fabio has sustained winds of 100 mph. Interestingly, he should take a turn towards the north and take aim at the Southern California Coastline. But, California will be spared as Fabio will be moving into some much colder water, too cold to sustain a Hurricane.
Chris Hampton Weather 