Although yesterday’s forecasted thunderstorms never came to fruition here in Southern New England, they did occur back in Pennsylvania and New York.  There were 2 confirmed tornadoes; one in Elmira, New York and the other just to the southeast across the border in Pennsylvania.  Perhaps the most impressive feature from yesterday was the bow echo that formed along the northern extent of the severe weather.  Which had radar estimated straight line wind speeds of 80-90 mph.  Official observed wind gusts of 60-65 mph associated with that bow echo came from a team of UMASS Lowell storm chasers that were stationed in Newbourgh, New York.

As the potent bow echo entered Southern New England however, it ran out of steam.  Post-analysis appears to reveal that it entered into a less favorable environment for maintaining the strength of such a system.  When it entered Connecticut, it appears that the bow echo entered an environment with higher values of Convective Inhibition (CIN); which were found when analyzing the balloon soundings from OKX and CHH from 00Z (8 pm) yesterday.

After failing on so many levels with yesterday’s forecast, I was very frustrated and angered with how inaccurate I ended up being.  So I did a little post-analysis  of myself and I have come away with a lesson learned.  I bought into the hype surrounding yesterday’s event.  I forgot to use common sense; which for here in New England is that events like yesterday’s forecast, just don’t happen.  Only on rare occasions (once every 10-15 years or so) do such events occur.

But enough of my rant about yesterday, on to the forecast at hand.  As the title says above, we look to have some unsettled weather coming up for really the entire 7 day forecast.

Looking at the big picture, the continental pattern so to say, we are heading for such a pattern that will keep us under the effects of an upper level trough.  The pattern is almost an omega block, but it isn’t fully one.  In an omega block, there are 3 main features, a big central area of High Pressure; flanked on either side by a cut-off area of Low Pressure.  For the upcoming pattern, there is going to be a big central area of High Pressure located over the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle region.  But on either coast, there are no cut-off lows.  Instead of cut-off lows, we basically get just a trough that will allow for pieces of energy to dive down out of Canada through the Great Lakes and out south of New England.  For a much clearer picture of what I mean by the upcoming pattern, see image below.  Forgive me, my paint writing skills are a work in progress.

Now that we have discussed the upcoming pattern; one in which it appears we will be unable to rid ourselves of  through at least next weekend, let’s talk some finer details.  Yes we will be in an unsettled pattern, but this isn’t to say that our entire week will be a washout.  The majority of the forecast should be mainly dry and there will be times when the sun is out and the weather is relatively nice.  What I am really trying to get across is that at any moment during the week, the chance for a shower or thunderstorm exists.

7 DAY FORECAST

Tonight… Partly cloudy skies.  Humid.  As both the overnight lows and dew point will be at or just above 60.  General rule of thumb, with air temperature and dew point so close, areas of patchy fog can develop.

Tomorrow… Everyone has a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Best chance however lies in New Hampshire, Southern Vermont and Western Mass.  Highs around 80.

Tomorrow Night…  Shower threat diminishes with loss of insolation (daytime heating).  Lows around 65.  Again watch out for patchy fog.

Sunday… Really a repeat of Saturday except that temperatures will be around 75 and not 80.  Chance of showers for all, best chance with places mentioned above.

Monday… Probably the best day of the week.  Still chance of a shower for Vermont and Western Mass.  Highs in the upper 70s.

Tuesday… Chance of a shower or storm for all of Southern New England.  Highs in the upper 70s.

Wednesday-Friday… Chance of shower or storm for Western and Central New England (VT, NH, W. MA, CT).  Highs at 80 or slightly above.

-Chris

 

 

 

 


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