The following are from the Storm Prediction Center’s Day 1 outlook.

The first image is their Categorical Outlook where they assign a risk assessment to the chances of severe thunderstorms.  The categories are: “Thunderstorm”, “Slight”, “Moderate”, and “High”.  As you can see from the image below, all of us are in the “slight” category, while all of western Southern New England falls under the “moderate” category.  Interesting to note, overnight SPC extended the coverage of the “moderate” to the north and east a bit.  For those wondering what a “High” risk day is, the April Super Outbreak from last year was a “High” risk day.

This image is of the SPC’s tornado outlook for today.  This shows what they feel are the probabilities of a tornado occurring.  As you can see, all of Southern New England has a 2% probability, but those same portions of western SNE have a 5% probability.

As I said yesterday, the primary threat is going to be wind damage.  This image below shows the probability of wind damage.  All of SNE has a 30% chance of seeing wind damage, while those same western areas have a 45% hatched probability.  Again the hatched region means that there is an increased likelihood of it occurring.  We don’t see probabilities like this around here very often.

Finally, this is the hail probability forecast.  Less likely than receiving wind damage, but still not unlikely as any strong to severe thunderstorm has the possibility of producing hail.  All of SNE has a 15% chance, while again those same western areas have a 30% chance.  

 

Probability charts like these don’t come along very often for our neck of the woods, so these will definitely be going into the archive.  Whether it be for how accurate they are or for how incredibly wrong they are;  only time will tell.\

Again, I will be doing my best to keep everyone up to date via facebook or Twitter.  So find me and follow me @Chrisrotary12.

-Chris


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