Tomorrow is going to be beautiful, so let’s skip it.  Thursday looks very interesting with regards to severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting us with a “Slight” risk already.  The set-up on Thursday is as follows.  During the morning, a warm front will push up from the south into Southern New England.  The placement of the warm front is key to Thursday’s potential.  Those of us who end up south of the warm front will have the best chance at seeing severe weather; those who end up on the north side of the front have the best chance at seeing some decent rains.

On the morning of Thursday, there is the possibility that a MCS could ride along the warm front and through portions of Southern New England.  MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System.  Simply put it is a large cluster of thunderstorms that bring with it the potential for severe weather that last for a prolonged periods of time and cover great distances.  This looks to be our first show of the day.

Next up to the plate is the arrival of the Cold Front.  Those of us that get into the warm sector will wait for the Cold Front to come and be the forcing mechanism that sparks off more thunderstorms.  Some of these thunderstorms have the chance to take on some supercell characteristics.  Meaning damaging winds, large hail and possibly even tornadoes.  There I said it, at this very moment, Thursday looks like it has the possibility to produce a tornado.

 

The image above is from the Storm Prediction Centers SREF model.  The parameter that I have chosen to show is the Significant Tornado Parameter.  Values higher than 1 highlight an increased risk for tornadoes.  This image above is for 5 pm on Thursday.  And it is showing values of 2 for portions of CT.

Now, we have to remember that we do live in New England, so an event that produces a tornado is unlikely. All I am saying is that the set-up appears to show the possibility of a tornado.

As I said above, the position of the warm front is everything.  And right now, model guidance is kind of all over the place with the position of the warm front on Thursday.  I suspect that  the front will be able to push into at least the Southern Half of Southern New England, but if it pushed itself to a position along the MA/NH & VT border that would not be shocking.  This also coincides with what the Storm Prediction Center is thinking because they are highlighting all but eastern portions of Southern New England.

Right now, it looks like all of Southern New England has an increased chance of severe weather for Thursday.  But again we have to remember, this is New England, which means that a lot of things could go wrong (and probably will).

But as a rule of thumb for New England severe weather, if we want a sneak peak for what we might be in for, keep an eye on Michigan for tomorrow.  Many of our best severe weather events have been preluded by a severe weather outbreak in Michigan.  So I know that I will be watching what unfolds around the Great Lakes.

7 DAY FORECAST:

Tonight: Passing clouds and chance of a stray shower or rumble of thunder.  Lows around 60.

Wednesday: Beautiful. Lots of sun and highs in the low 80s.

Thursday:  See everything mentioned above.  Chance of thunder in morning.  Then again in afternoon.  Some storms could be severe.  Highs around 80.

Friday: Chance of a thunderstorm.   Highs around 80.

Saturday-Tuesday: Shaping up to be a nice weekend.  Isolated chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday. Highs in the low 80s.

-Chris


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